Los Angeles and Orange counties are entering unknown waters, as a wave of retreating coronavirus has left both regions on the verge of new reopenings than ever before.
The two counties, the largest and the third largest in population in the state, have already accumulated the necessary data for a week of advancement to the orange level – a change that would allow a more significant and widespread unblocking of companies and other public spaces.
Its progression, which could happen as early as next week if its metrics remained stable, would accelerate the recent run up the state’s reopening ladder.
In the past few weeks, the vast majority of California counties have improved to the point where they can get rid of the state’s stricter restrictions to combat the spread of COVID-19.
According to the state’s reopening strategy, counties are classified into one of four color-coded levels – purple, where coronavirus transmission is considered widespread and internal operations are severely limited or totally suspended in a wide range of sectors. Business; Red; Orange; and finally, yellow, where most companies can be opened indoors with modifications.
Although California has made tremendous progress after a devastating wave of autumn and winter, the orange and yellow layers remain a very exclusive, albeit growing, club.
According to state data released on Tuesday, some additional counties will move to the orange layer this week: San Francisco, Santa Clara, Marin, Trinity, Lassen and Yolo.
Also residing in this layer are the counties of Mariposa, Plumas and San Mateo. Only two counties, Alpine and Sierra, reached yellow.
Moving to the red level this week were Kern, Nevada and Stanislaus counties.
Kern’s progression means that the entire southern third of the state has now moved out of the purple layer – a dramatic change from the autumn and winter wave, which hit the region particularly hard.
Thirty-nine counties in California, with a combined population of 33.4 million, are now in the red layer. Only eight – Fresno, Glenn, Inyo, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin and Yuba – remain in purple.
Level assignments depend on three factors: coronavirus case rates, adjusted based on the number of tests performed; the rate of positive test results; and a health equity metric designed to ensure that the rate of positive testing in poorer communities is not significantly higher than the overall number in the county.
Reaching the orange level requires a county to have an adjusted coronavirus case rate of 3.9 or less new cases per 100,000 people each day, a test positivity rate of less than 5% and a health equity metric of less than 5.3%.
LA and Orange counties ticked all of these boxes, show the state data, and their most recently calculated adjusted case rates were 3.7 and 3.5, respectively.
Counties must record two consecutive weeks of qualifying data to advance to a less restrictive level and must remain at one level for at least three weeks before moving again.
Alameda, Colusa and Santa Cruz counties, for example, have accumulated two consecutive weeks of data worthy of orange, but have to wait to move forward because they have not been at the red level for long enough.
In addition to LA and Orange counties, other counties that must maintain their metrics to potentially move completely to the orange level next week are Butte, Calaveras, El Dorado, Imperial, Modoc, Napa and Tuolumne.
Upon reaching the orange layer, municipalities can allow bars to reopen outdoors, with modifications, without the need to serve food.
In addition, capacity restrictions have been lifted in stores (although pandemic security modifications still apply); the permitted internal capacity increases from 25% to 50% for places of worship, museums, zoos and aquariums; the maximum capacity of the internal restaurant and cinema increases from 25% or 100 people, whichever is less, to 50% of the capacity or 200 people, whichever is less; and the capacity of the indoor gym and yoga studio increases from 10% to 25%.
Amusement parks – which may open from April 1 in red-tier counties – would be allowed to further expand their maximum allowed frequency to 25% of capacity.
The capacity limit for outdoor sports and live performances, also starting on April 1, rises to 33% for counties in the orange layer.
Even when state criteria are met, however, counties may choose to maintain stricter reopening rules.
Recent and significant movement of counties through the state level system is made possible by two factors: continued progress in the battle against COVID-19 and a new strategy that facilitates the criteria needed to progress as more of the most vulnerable Californians are vaccinated.
State officials have set an initial goal of administering 2 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine to targeted underserved communities – those within the lowest quartile of a socio-economic measurement tool called the California Healthy Places Index – and an extended goal of 4 million doses.
To support this effort, the state is now allocating 40% of its COVID-19 vaccines available to residents in these areas.
When California overcame its first self-defined vaccination barrier earlier this month, the state began allowing counties with an adjusted case rate of up to 10 new cases per day per 100,000 people to get out of the purple layer. Previously, counties needed to have case rates equal to or less than seven per 100,000 people to move to the red layer.
This lower boundary paved the way for many counties, including much of southern California, to enter the red level faster than otherwise.
As soon as the state reaches 4 million, the limit to move to the orange level will be relaxed from a requirement of less than 4.0 new cases per day per 100,000 residents to less than 6.0. Entering the yellow level would require an adjusted rate of new daily cases below 2.0 per 100,000 people, compared to the current requirement of less than 1.0.
However, it is likely that there will still be some time off. As of Tuesday morning, about 2.9 million doses of vaccine were administered in the target communities, state data show.