Look, Jack, the Americans are going to meet long before July 4th

Look, Jack, the Americans are going to meet long before July 4th

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Biden knows that, right? The reason he defined July 4th as a day when Americans could get together with friends and have barbecues is not because he thinks it will take so long to reach a certain degree of normalcy. It was partly because of symbolism (“we are declaring our independence from the virus!”) And partly because his habit with the pandemic is to compromise and over-deliver. He never changed his goal of administering 100 million doses in his first 100 days, although it was clear on the day of inauguration, with the United States already approaching that pace, that we would achieve that goal easily.

Keep in mind that even blue state governors like Larry Hogan and Andrew Cuomo have started to reopen * big venues * like Camden Yards with limited capacity. When July arrives, some may be at full capacity. Undoubtedly, there will be mass meetings on Independence Day this year to watch fireworks, and perhaps not exclusively in the red states. Biden just wants to set the limit to return to normal as low as possible, to make it easier for his team to overcome it – and, of course, manage expectations if any vaccine-resistant black swan variant appears to complicate things.

Jump to 2:55 here and watch Gottlieb drop another bomb of truth in the debate over relaxing precautions. Vaccinated people will relax their precautions, no matter how “the debate” goes, he says, correctly:

Now look at this:

We will reach 50 percent vaccinated in early May, at a rate of 1.43 million doses per day – but we are well ahead of that rate, with an average of 2.2 million doses in the last seven days. And, of course, a significant part of the population has already been immunized by contracting the virus and recovering from it, which means that the population’s real immunity will be over 50 percent on the day we reach the vaccine milestone. Herd immunity may begin in April. And certainly, with so many elderly people vaccinated, the risk of hospitals being overwhelmed by a new wave will have practically disappeared by then.

Now, things are looking so good now in terms of supply that even the blue state of Michigan, led by Gretchen Whitmer, is preparing to launch “equity” considerations by prioritizing the vaccine and opening it up to everyone in just a few. weeks:

Michiganders will celebrate 4th of July as they please.

When our friends in Europe will be able to celebrate the holidays in droves again is another matter, since Italy, Germany and France are each plagued by the increase in the number of cases at the moment. Italy is looking at another blockade around Easter and German scientists say a “third wave” has already started in their country, with more restrictions coming soon. Because? Partly because the British variant is wild, but partly because they are struggling with vaccines. See how they compare to the US in cumulative vaccinations per capita:

We are almost three times better. Measured by the current seven-day moving average, we are twice as fast. I wonder how the scenes from the United States and the United Kingdom going back to normal are going to happen on the continent this summer. Hopefully, this will lead to less hesitation in vaccination among Europeans, but I wonder if there will be political consequences for governments in relation to the slow pace as well.

I leave you with this dark story, characteristic of the media. It is not a lie, strictly speaking: the only way to “end” COVID is to vaccinate the planet, which will not happen anytime soon. As long as there are populations where the virus can spread, the risk of emerging a variant that could beat current vaccines will remain. But the pandemic as we know it will end here in the summer, and mRNA vaccine developers must be able to adapt quickly to variants as they arise and provide reinforcements to Americans. The pandemic did not “end”, but it did.

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