Derick Hingle / Associated Press
After three seasons of ups and downs and changes with the Los Angeles Lakers and the New Orleans Pelicans, Lonzo Ball may be available before its next restricted free agency.
“New Orleans has received calls about the availability of Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick and has been open to discussing negotiations around both with interested teams, “wrote Shams Charania for The Athletic. “A change would create a clearer path for young guards Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kira Lewis in the Pelicans’ rotation.”
Redick’s availability is not terribly surprising. The 36-year-old veteran can be a useful spacer in a competitor, something the Pelicans have not shown themselves to be. In the twilight of his career, Redick is probably interested in moving on to a winning team.
Ball’s name, on the other hand, probably raises a few more eyebrows. Lonzo was just a few months away from turning 23. He was part of the great acquisition that New Orleans received by Anthony Davis. And Pelicans have the ability to match any offer he may receive as a restricted free agent in the off-season.
Your start to the season may be worse than New Orleans collectively. Daniel Myers, from the Basketball Reference, wrote that a player around 0.0 plus / minus is in the range of a “decent starter or a 6th solid man”. Ball was at 0.5 over his first three seasons. In 2020-21, it plummeted to a replacement level below -2.7.
He is shooting worse than 40 percent on the field and 30 percent on three and recording career casualties in percentage of assistance, percentage of rebound and percentage of theft.
Still, there’s an undeniable chemistry between Ball and the franchise’s likely future face, Zion Williamson. In the nearly 800 minutes that the two played together, the Pelicans have an additional 5.0 points per 100 possessions. They have less-10.7 in the more than 300 minutes that Zion played without Lonzo.
The young guard has a knack for finding Williamson in a good position to score easy buckets. Even if he manages to reach the average as a sniper (something we can say about Ball for years), his feeling for the game and his altruism would make him a good partner for Zion.
All of which means that, despite the slow start, the Pelicans are unlikely to simply evict Lonzo somewhere. Teams interested in the potential of their multi-faceted game will need to make serious offers.
Los Angeles Clippers
Kevin C. Cox / Associated Press
The deal: Lou Williams, Patrick Patterson and a 2022 second round pick (via Atlanta) for Lonzo Ball
Lou Williams was a staple of the second unit of the Los Angeles Clippers under former coach Doc Rivers. In the last three seasons leading up to 2020-21, he averaged 29.4 minutes, 20.4 points and 5.4 assists, almost exclusively off the bench. With Tyronn Lue now in charge, Lou-Will dropped to 19.0 minutes, 8.8 points and 2.7 assists.
With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George dealing with such a significant part of the scoring and the game, Williams’ offensive is not so important. And when he’s on the ground, the defense falls apart.
Replacing your score with Lonzo’s defense could reinforce a second unit that is struggling to defend itself. And in LA, Lonzo would not be called upon to do much more than pass and take on difficult defensive tasks. Again, Clippers don’t need a lot of extra punctuation.
The ability to exchange defensive formations that include Ball, Leonard, George and Marcus Morris Sr. would be outstanding.
For New Orleans, the two contracts he is receiving in this deal are expiring. So you’re not taking any extra long-term money. And Williams would be more useful with the Pelicans, who are 19 in points for 100 possessions (LA is the first).
Think of Lou-Will’s chemistry with Montrezl Harrell in pick-and-roll and imagine those skills at play with Zion. If Williams were the first guy to get off the bench for the Pelicans, he and Williamson could spend some time dominating the middle of the track, with Brandon Ingram flanking us.
This combination and Williams’ overall ability to score points would almost certainly increase the team’s offensive efficiency.
As for the rest of the business, Patterson is a contract that is expiring and is not playing much for LA either. He probably wouldn’t have a long-term future in New Orleans, but his salary is necessary to comply with the collective bargaining agreement’s trade rules.
The choice of the second round should also not be too difficult to give up. Clippers are in title or defeat mode, and the hit rate for second-round players is not great. For New Orleans, it is another addition to a growing stock of working capital.
Golden State Warriors
Noah Graham / NBAE photo via Getty Images
The deal: Kelly Oubre Jr., Alen Smailagic and a second round pick in 2022 for Lonzo Ball and Willy Hernangomez
This comes down to a very straightforward proposition: do you prefer Kelly Oubre Jr. or Lonzo?
When presented with their statistics in a blind flash poll, Twitter users overwhelmingly voted for Ball’s pass and the impact on Oubre’s score.
In a team that already has Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins (averaging 17.8 points for the best career efficiency), this exchange may make some sense.
“Lonzo yells a type of player Steve Kerr,” Light Years Podcastin Sam Esfandiari tweeted. “And I wouldn’t be mad about it. It would work really well with Steph (and eventually Klay etc).”
With Lonzo in a Andre Iguodala role (again, he wouldn’t have to do much more than defend and move the ball), his lack of kick would not be such an obvious problem.
And who better to pass the time than Curry and Kerr for a hard shot?
In addition, if Ball fit in well, Golden State would have its Bird rights and the restricted range of the free agency holder.
For Pelicans, they receive at least a little draft capital for a player they can lose at the free agency. And Alen Smailagic, 20, offers some intrigue in a low-wage contract that lasts another three years.
In the short term, Oubre would not help with shooting problems in New Orleans unless he rediscovered his 2019-20 form. He would add more athletics to a list that already includes Zion and Ingram, however. Those three in court can be scary.
And Ball’s departure could mean more punctual repetitions for Ingram. Stan Van Gundy is certainly familiar with the concept, as evidenced by his years with Hedo Turkoglu and the Orlando Magic.
Portland Trail Blazers
Rusty Costanza / Associated Press
The deal: Derrick Jones Jr. and a first round pick in 2023 (protected by the lottery) for Lonzo Ball
With CJ McCollum ready for the foreseeable future, the Portland Trail Blazers suddenly have a stark need for defense, and Lonzo Ball can help, despite his struggles as a sniper.
And Damian Lillard has some experience (and a bit of success) playing with a decent-sized ace who can’t seem to hit the lights on Evan Turner.
Ball’s vision and passes certainly exceed any level that Turner has achieved on that front too (although he may be a little underestimated in this regard).
In lineups with Lillard, the 6’6 “ball could be tasked with defending the opponent’s most dangerous guard, saving the superstar some energy in the end. The ability to create an attack and give Lillard opportunities to score outside the ball it would also help.
And in today’s NBA, Portland may even be able to get away with a few Lonzo-at-the-3 minutes when McCollum returns to the roster.
New Orleans, however, gets back a player who is about the same age as Ball, but may well be earning less next season (Ball just needs a team to feel a little wild to receive a robust offer in a restricted free agency). Derrick Jones Jr. can also be alternated in defense and is a good finisher in the ring.
The downgrade in game creation will make Pelicans look for more, however. And McCollum’s absence could make the Blazers desperate enough to include a protected choice in the first round.
If Pelicans think they can lose the Ball at a restricted free agency (or at least receive an offer they don’t want to match), it would be difficult to miss the first time.