There is a long list of intriguing elements in Sunday’s Super Bowl 2021 between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Of course, there is a defender clash between Tom Brady, 43, playing in his 10th Super Bowl and trying to win his seventh ring, and Patrick Mahomes, 25, who wants to become the youngest defender to win several Super Titles from bowls.
There are crunchy coaches. Bruce Arians, a football player from Paterson, NJ, who is the head coach of the Super Bowl for the first time at the age of 68. He faces Andy Reid, 62, who could never win the big championship with some very good Eagles and Chiefs Teams and now has the chance to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy for the second year in a row.
There is a lot of star power with names like Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. And there are veterans who have traveled several light and dark NFL roads, from Jason Pierre-Paul to Ndamukong Suh to Antonio Brown to Rob Gronkowski to Le’Veon Bell and more.
But for me, while trying to undermine this game, the most intriguing thing about the Super Bowl was the distribution of points. The New York Post’s Bettor’s Guide uses the line provided by BetMGM on Thursday night. This selection originally appeared in Friday’s issues of The Post. At the time, BetMGM listed the Chiefs as favorites of 3.5 points with an Over / Under of 56.5. The vig, or the juice, was -105 on Chiefs -3.5 and -115 on Buccaneers +3.5. This suggested that the next move of the line would be for 3, removing the “hook” from half a point. The BetMGM line remained stable on those numbers for more than a week after the book was opened with that number, dropped to Chiefs -3 after some precise bets and restored the hook earlier last week.
Why is this interesting?
Looking at the set of sports betting lines on nypost.com, VSiN.com and VegasInsider.com, only Stations and Mirage in Las Vegas had BetMGM on Chiefs -3.5 on Thursday night. All other books (including William Hill, Wynn, Golden Nugget, DraftKings and the SuperBook Westgate) listed Chiefs -3 with vigs at -115 or -120. All of those books were teetering on the verge of increasing the line to 3.5, but they seemed hesitant to return the “hook” to Bucs’ sponsors.
(Aside, bettors who go to the sportsbook window or bet on mobile apps can get any spread of points they wish to bet on. For example, at BetMGM, Chiefs’ supporters can bet 3 points, but would have to pay -115 vig ( instead of getting the same money at -3.5). Bucs can get -105 at +3, -120 at +3.5 and -125 at +4. You can actually bet on any team between +17, 5 and -17.5 if you are willing to accept the juice).
Here, however, the selection has to be made with the spread of the time, and I got the idea from this market analysis that the extra half point is extremely valuable. My thoughts were confirmed on Friday, when all sports bets that were at 3.5 reduced their lines to three. Even more interesting was the news that Houston furniture store magnate Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale had bet $ 3.46 million on Bucs +3.5. He bought an extra half point at -127 vig, which means he will make a profit of $ 2.72 million.
The Chiefs defeated the Buccaneers, 27-24, on November 29 in Tampa. Kansas City was a 3.5-point favorite at the start of the game, according to covers.com, and ran to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter on Mahomes’ 75 and 44-yard touchdown passes to Hill. Hill would receive a 20-yard touchdown pass to place KC at 27-10 in the middle of the third quarter, part of his 13 unstoppable receptions for 269 yards. But in the end, the Buccaneers covered the distance – by the hook edge – while Brady found Evans for 31 and 7-yard touchdowns in the fourth period.
Does the regular season meeting between these teams mean anything now or does it portend what Sunday will be like?
In this postseason, the Buccaneers avenged two double-digit losses to the Saints with a 30-20 win in the divisional round. They then followed their elimination at home by 38-10 from the Packers in Week 6, winning at Green Bay, 31-26, in the NFC Championship.
The Chiefs had a rematch this postseason, winning Bills 38-24 in the AFC Championship after winning 26-17 in Orchard Park in Week 6. So it’s a mix, but if you choose to see the double of Buccaneers – to avenge the victory over the Saints as the outlier, you can come to the conclusion that the results of the regular season and post-season rematch were very similar for both Super Bowl competitors.
Handicapper Adam Chernoff wrote an interesting dive into the lessons from the first Chiefs-Buccaneers game on VSiN.com. He noted that this season, the Buccaneers blitzed 39% of the time, the NFL’s fifth-highest rate. But against the Chiefs, defensive coordinator Todd Bowles chose to send extra pass brokers only 17 percent of the time. Mahomes also threw 462 yards against this overly cautious and atypical Bucs defense.
Entering this game, Arians is talking about his “No Risk It, No Biscuit” philosophy. He would want to bring the Buccaneers’ normal aggressive and blunt defense to the party and see what would happen that way. Vita Vea, Tampa Bay’s big 347-pound defensive tackle, missed the first meeting. He is back now, and his presence will release pass rushers and blitzers to chase Mahomes. Factor in the absence of injury from left striker Eric Fisher and the general friction on the Kansas City offensive line, and you can see how it can become a difficult day for Mahomes, even if there is an opportunity for great plays.
I would not be surprised if Mahomes found a way to win. But coming in, I expect another game played between these teams and I believe that that extra half point I was lucky to get due to the good moment can really end up making a difference.
Super Bowl 2021
Buccaneers +3.5 and Under 56.5.
Super Bowl 2021 prediction
Chiefs, 26-23.
Championship Sunday: 0-2 vs. spread, 1-1 Over / Under