Dave Blezow of The Post gives his picks for the NFL’s Week 17 games. Home team at CAPS.
(Note: point selections and spreads are from Thursday’s Betting Guide).
At the end of Sunday night, the New York Giants could be the winner of the NFC East title and move on to the playoffs. They may own the third worst record in the NFL, which brings with it the third choice in the 2021 draft. Or the result may end up somewhere between and not as good as any of those extremes.
This line changed six points from a preview of the Giants -3 to the Dallas Cowboys -3. The crowd is clearly in love with the Cowboys attack – which finally took off with Andy Dalton and scored 30, 41 and 37 points in the past three weeks, all of them winners. The Giants scored up to 30 points exactly once this season, and that was in the 37-34 loss to the Cowboys on October 11, the game in which Dak Prescott was injured. The Giants have not scored more than 17 points in any of the last five games.
I think you can play the recent results, and the Cowboys winning streak and the Giants losing streak out of the window starts on Sunday, however. As much of a talent advantage as the Cowboys have in this confrontation, they can also waste that talent. The Giants will attack them hard, with a good plan. If Daniel Jones is healthier and can do more, the Giants can stay alive long enough to start the game between Washington and Philadelphia.
The choice: Giants, +3.
New York Jets (+3) on NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Jets have won two consecutive games, but just as important for a column like this, they have covered the difference in five of the last seven games. That series started on November 9, with a 30-27 loss to the Patriots at MetLife Stadium, a game that the Jets, who were 9 points behind, led by 10 points in the middle of the fourth period. The Patriots are in a short week of a defeat for the Bills that had “season over” stamped on it. The Jets will play hard again for Adam Gase, who will soon be fired, and this time a victory will not cost them in the draft position.
BUFFALO BILLS (-1) over Miami Dolphins
Miami wins a wild card with a win, and this is usually a bigger motivator than sowing. Buffalo rested stars at Week 17 last year and lost to the Jets, then lost in the first round. I think Sean McDermott plays this straight.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+12) on Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens would also win a wild card and destroyed Cincinnati, 27-3, on October 11, when Joe Burrow was healthy. There are no points of style, however. A secure 7-10 point win would solve the problem. Brandon Allen, who shot 371 yards last week, can keep the Bengals close or get them through the back door.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (-10) on Pittsburgh Steelers
The wide receiver’s cavalry will be returning to the Browns, who would be in victory. The Steelers are going in the opposite direction, sitting Ben Roethlisberger and a few others. Under normal circumstances, Mason Rudolph may give the Steelers a chance, but essentially it is Mike Tomlin telling his team that the regular season is over.
Minnesota Vikings (-7) on DETROIT LIONS
Matthew Stafford says he will play if he can, but he has already donated enough body parts to the Lions’ hopeless cause. Dalvin Cook is out, but the Vikings have other defenders who can get a few feet and maintain the double threat.
Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) on TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Good for Bruce Arians for keeping his foot on the gas after securing a playoff spot, it makes sense because the fifth seed faces NFC East in the first round. But we will stay with Matt Ryan and Falcons, who missed the field chance after the Kansas City overtime.
CHICAGO BEARS (+5.5) on Green Bay Packers
The Bears won three in a row and would come in with a victory here. The Packers could win the first seed, which would allow them to be the only NFC team to rest next week. They go with everything, but there is a lot of space under this number.
Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) on DENVER BRONCOS
The Raiders are 1-5 in their last six games, and the win was the disaster of Gregg Williams’ blitz. But with each game, you can still see how dangerous that team is. Archrival Broncos will bring out the best.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+14) on INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Jaguars are facing the only team they defeated in week 1. The Colts need a victory and a defeat in Tennessee and can suffer a disappointment if the Titans are winning big on the scoreboard. There is no need for Jags to tank now that Trevor Lawrence is safe.
Los Angeles chargers (-3.5) on KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
KC took first place in the AFC and Andy Reid will rest players, including Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers have had a frustrating season, but they still have the firepower to defeat a disinterested opponent.
Arizona Cardinals (+1) on LOS ANGELES RAMS
As much as I respect Sean McVay and Aaron Donald theme, this game looks like it will boil down to the game of Kyler Murray (possibly diminished) and John Wolford replacing Jared Goff (and being without Cooper Kupp).
San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) on Seattle Seahawks
Seattle needs the Packers and Saints to lose to have a chance to reach the top. If there is bad news on the scoreboard in Glendale, Arizona, it could give 49ers a chance for coverage or a turnaround.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+6.5) on the New Orleans Saints
New Orleans still has a chance to be first and goodbye, but can’t imagine Sean Payton letting Drew Brees take too many hits here. Teddy Bridgewater is still 7-3 ATS as an underdog this season and 24-6 as a ‘dog in his career because the Panthers closed as a 1 point favorite in Washington last week.
(Update: The Saints will be without Alvin Kamara, who tested positive for COVID, and all of his running backs will lose the game because they were close contacts. WR Ty Montgomery will move to running back, and Taysom Hill should receive some shipments. Line dropped only half a point for Santos -6).
Tennessee Titans (-7.5) on HOUSTON TEXANS
Houston burns me several times as an underdog, but I have faith in Mike Vrabel to recover from defeat in the snow for the Packers. Before that, the Titans averaged 37.4 ppg in their previous five games, and the Texans D was awful.
Washington (-1.5) on PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
It’s still the beginning of the week, so we have to guess whether Alex Smith will play for the WFT. Although his availability has a big influence on the result, the defensive line of Chase Young, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat is what gives Washington his best chance of overcoming the NFC East finish line.
Best bets: Bengals, hawks, jaguars
Closing week: Bengals (Locks 4-11-1 in 2020).
Last week: 9-7 overall, best bets 2-1.