Life expectancy in the United States has dropped in just over a year – the biggest drop in decades – as a result of the large number of deaths from COVID-19, according to estimates in a new study.
Researchers in the study project that, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the average life expectancy of the U.S. in 2020 will fall 1.13 years, reaching 77.48 years, according to the study, published Thursday (Jan. 14) ) in the magazine Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. This is the biggest single-year drop in life expectancy in at least 40 years, and would cause the country’s life expectancy to fall to its lowest level since 2003, the researchers said.
Life expectancy in the United States rarely decreases, and when it does, it makes headlines. More recently, Life expectancy in the US has decreased for 0.1 year in 2015, 2016 and 2017 – a trend that was attributed to increases in “despair deaths”, including drug overdose and suicide. The new estimated decline due to COVID-19 is 10 times greater.
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Furthermore, the study showed even greater falls in 2020 among black and latin communities, which were hit particularly hard by pandemic. Overall, nearly 400,000 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 in the USA, according to Johns Hopkins virus panel.
The study projected that blacks ‘life expectancy will drop 2.1 years, to 72.78 years, and Latinos’ life expectancy, will fall 3.05 years, to 78.77 years. In contrast, the life expectancy of white people is projected to decrease by 0.68 years to 77.84 years.
“Our study looks at the effect of this exceptional number of deaths on life expectancy across the nation, as well as the consequences for marginalized groups,” says study co-author Theresa Andrasfay, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Southern California, said in a statement. “The disproportionate effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the life expectancy of blacks and Latin Americans probably has to do with its greater exposure through their workplaces or family contacts, in addition to receiving poor health care, leading to more infections and worse results. “
The researchers estimated life expectancy in the United States at birth using four scenarios – one in which the COVID-19 pandemic did not happen and three scenarios that used the COVID-19 death projections for 2020 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
The biggest reductions in life expectancy for black and Latino populations were in part due to “a disproportionate number of deaths at younger ages for these groups,” said study co-author Noreen Goldman, professor of demography and public affairs at the University Princeton in the statement. “These findings underscore the need for protective behaviors and programs to reduce potential viral exposure among younger individuals who may not be perceived to be at high risk.”
It is important to note that life expectancy at birth is an estimate of how long a population of people would live if they experienced the mortality rates seen in a given period (in this case, in 2020), the authors said.
although Vaccines for covid-19 could significantly reduce transmission this year, researchers do not expect life expectancy to recover immediately in 2021.
“While the arrival of effective vaccines is promising, the United States is experiencing more daily deaths from COVID-19 than anywhere else in the pandemic,” said Andrasfay. “Because of this, and because we expect long-term health and economic effects that can result in worse mortality for many years, we expect persistent effects on life expectancy in 2021.”
Originally published on Live Science.