SALT LAKE CITY – For doctors like Dr. Mark Briesacher, the trends in COVID-19 over the past two months have been a welcome sight.
The seven-day running average of new cases of COVID-19 in Utah has dropped 87% since its most recent peak on January 9, according to data from the Utah Department of Health. The current average is 419 new cases per day, the lowest number in more than six months.
As the cases dropped, the pressure that the disease placed on hospitals also slowly eased. As of Friday, there were 130 people hospitalized for COVID-19, which is the lowest number of hospitalizations for COVID-19 since mid-September.
The most serious cases also decreased: 74% of the ICUs in the state’s reference centers were overbooked, which is a mark below the alert limit. State ICUs were also 69% full, which is also below the limit, data from the state health department show.
The data also shows that the ICUs of reference centers and state ICUs reached 10% of the ICU’s capacity as a result of COVID-19 this week, also for the first time since mid-September. Both reached 44% and 45% on January 15.
In addition, the COVID-19 vaccine was opened to all Utahns aged 16 and over, required to dramatically change the number of vaccinated Utahns in the coming weeks.
“We are excited about the trends we are seeing, mainly because it means a lot to patients and families,” said Briesacher, chief medical officer at Intermountain Healthcare. “Fewer people in the hospital, less people getting seriously ill. This is very good to see.”
While there is good news about COVID-19 trends, Briesacher said there is still a risk associated with celebrating the end of the pandemic very quickly. That is why he and other public health experts are cautiously optimistic about the school’s spring break and as the mask’s state-wide mandate technically ends on April 10.
To begin with, more people need to be vaccinated and it is impossible to vaccinate at least 70% of the estimated adult population in one week. Briesacher also pointed out that, although cases have dropped significantly in recent weeks, they are still relatively high, with 400 to 500 new cases reported every day of the week.
I have a lot of empathy for the fact that this disease is still creating such a burden on our communities, individuals and families. We owe them to remain vigilant and move on in the right way until we can really contain it.
–Dr. Mark Briesacher, chief physician, Intermountain Healthcare
Dr. Angela Dunn, a state epidemiologist, also pointed out in recent weeks that the number of new cases was stabilizing.
“It still represents a lot of new cases,” said Briesacher during a question and answer session on Friday. “We still have a transmission rate in the range of 7% to 8%, so we have to remain vigilant with regard to infection control, especially within healthcare facilities.”
He compared the pandemic to a marathon – it is perfectly normal to celebrate victories along the way, but the race is not over yet. The point is that the ultimate goal is not to get the COVID-19 infection numbers back to the levels seen six months ago, but to end as many new cases, serious cases and deaths as possible.
“I think it is good for a community, especially our communities, to feel good about how we respond,” he said. “Let’s be vigilant. Let’s not lose our advantage; let’s not forget how serious it is. There are still Utahns dying from COVID-19 and when you compare it to what we went through, you can wrongly conclude that, boy, things are OK because they are much better.
“But if you focus on the absolute number … these are the people and families that are affected in a very difficult way,” he continued. “I have a lot of empathy for the fact that this disease is still creating a huge burden for our communities, individuals and families. We owe them to remain vigilant and move on in the right ways until we can really hold this thing down.”
There are some possible obstacles between now and achieving the collective immunity of COVID-19, which Briesacher addressed on Friday.
One is that spring break at many Utah schools has also started this weekend or is on the horizon. Briesacher recommended that families planning to travel during the break focus on activities that can be “more outdoors in orientation”, such as camping in small groups.
“We have all seen the pictures of Florida’s beaches and I know we will not be like that,” he said. “But there is a risk, as there was during the Thanksgiving holiday. You saw the community’s tremendous response to come together and really mitigate the potential results that could have come from that Thanksgiving holiday.”
The current state mandate is also set to expire on April 10, after Governor Spencer Cox signed a bill passed in the legislature this week to set that date. It is important to note that it will remain in effect for schools and also for companies that decide to require masks.
Companies like Harmons, Smith’s and Target said they would stick to their requirements beyond that date. Intermountain Healthcare also announced that it requires employees and patients to wear masks on its premises, even after April 10.
Briesacher said he sees April 10 as the start of the “personal health mandate”, where individuals can make their own decisions to continue wearing masks and socializing in public places, when possible, to avoid the possibility of another increase in cases.
He added that Intermountain and other public health experts will continue to monitor the situation should there be another increase in cases and as the future of COVID-19 beyond the pandemic takes shape.