Only once in this century did the NBA MVP come from a team that finished worse than runner-up: Russell Westbrook in 2016-17, when Oklahoma City Thunder was sixth in the West and he was the first player since Oscar Robertson will have an average of triple-double for an entire season We may be looking at a second occurrence this season.
For most of the year, Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic and LeBron James occupied the first tier of candidates. Recently, Damian Lillard forced him into the conversation. But Embiid came out with a bone bruise on his knee. The original return schedule was 2-3 weeks from mid-March, but you know the Sixers will be extremely cautious. A month of shelf time is definitely at stake.
Meanwhile, James suffered an ankle sprain on Saturday and is absent indefinitely. The Lakers are also encouraged to play with extra security with LeBron, particularly with Anthony Davis also out with a calf strain. Getting your two stars to be healthy for the playoffs is all that matters to the Lakers, even if they have to come in with an inferior seed.
Given the strength of the other candidates, extended absences can practically eliminate LeBron and Embiid from the MVP’s realistic discussion. LeBron may return relatively early (ankle sprains may require a wide range of recovery times, and LeBron traveled with the Lakers to Phoenix), but his case was lessening anyway.
In that case, the race would, in all probability, for Jokic and Lillard, wither neither the Nuggets nor the Blazers that currently occupy one of the top four. Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden may slip to the end of the conversation, but the barrier to Antetokounmpo overcoming voter fatigue and winning his third straight is almost certainly too high to clean up, and the narrative surrounding Harden forcing him out of Houston to join a super team in Brooklyn is probably just as inhibiting, even with the way he played in the absence of Kevin Durant.
I am not saying it is right. But I think it is the reality. Except for more injuries, this thing is falling for Jokic and Lillard, and what a photographic finish this could be. Jokic is the owner of the top billing in almost all advanced statistics known to man, but the way Lillard, who averages the top five in the advanced statistics chart, has taken the Blazers to the current No. 5 position in the West, despite that CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic have disappeared 60 combined games, for me, give him an advantage.
Obviously, we are dividing the hair here, but it is quite an impressive look that the Nuggets and Blazers have exactly the same record (25-16) coming into play on Sunday. I know what Lillard overcame in Portland’s injury path to get to that point. Their clutch performances are off the charts. Voters, in a heads-up situation, can be convinced that Jokic would have the Nuggets in the same position without Jamal Murray, who has only lost two games, and who do you think is the third best player at his side?
Anyway, Jokic and Lillard may well be the MVP leaders at this point next week. They may already be. And there is a good chance that none of them will end up with one of the first two seeds.