Hellish scenes threaten to get worse.
Increasingly, Lebanese officials and politicians are raising the specter of an internal conflict. This is just 31 years after the end of the country’s terrible 15-year civil war. This black chapter ended with a modus vivendi that critics say has systematized government corruption, culminating in a financial collapse that once again brought Lebanon to the brink.
In a statement to CNN this week, Lebanon’s interim minister, Mohammed Fahmi, said there was a high likelihood of “security breaches such as explosions and assassination attempts” in the country.
But on the streets of Lebanon, that same political elite is overwhelmingly unpopular. Even the fervent supporters of the main parties call for a review of the country’s confessional power-sharing system, which distributes seats by sectarian group. Parliamentarians publicly admit their flaws, and some of them say they should also step down. Left-wing groups, such as the Communist party, called for an “escalation” of the country’s popular uprising, which began in October 2019 with the aim of overthrowing the ruling class.
The report details exactly what this means: a rapid slowdown in economic growth, a lost currency, small depositors bearing most of the economic losses, an impressive depletion of the country’s resources, including its human capital, and a poverty rate that exceeded 50% in 2021.
The catastrophe could have been largely avoided, says the World Bank. Lebanon’s leaders – much to the shock of some of the most cynical observers – avoided the adoption of policies that could mitigate the financial decline.
The state has done little or nothing to alleviate poverty. Formal capital controls were not implemented, almost a year and a half after banks began to limit withdrawals of money from depositors in a discretionary manner. This practice caused capital flight from the super-rich, while the working and middle classes watched helplessly as their deposits lost most of their real value.
Nor does the country have an official platform for the exchange rate, leaving the fall of the lira at the mercy of gloomy black markets and the ever-present possibility of currency manipulation.
The economic outlook gets darker almost on a daily basis. The country’s currency on the black market has already lost 90% of its value in October 2019. As Lebanon burns its foreign reserves, interim energy minister Raymond Ghajar raised the possibility of power cuts 24 hours a day, 7 days a week during a press this month, plunging the country into “total darkness”.
The loss of subsidies could be the turning point that threatens to topple Lebanon in scenarios similar to those of Venezuela, exacerbating the existing scarcity of food, fuel and medicines.
Families living on a minimum wage – now on less than $ 50 a month – will not be able to pay for basic food items, as inflation skyrockets. The already strained security forces, which need to deal with the frustrations of their newly impoverished ranks and ranks, will have to deal with rising crime rates and the possibility of long-standing political tensions reaching the top.
The only glimmer of hope is the possibility of an imminent political resolution that, in turn, will produce an efficient and effective government. But to most of those familiar with the miserable record of the political elite, this seems like an unrealistic dream. In the absence of leadership, the economy may continue to move towards the unknown.