October will mark 20 years since the United States invaded Afghanistan to eliminate Al Qaeda sanctuaries and their Taliban sponsors, and Americans are understandably eager to move on. But the difficulties that arise with America’s current commitment are nothing compared to the chaos that would follow an abrupt departure.
In February 2020, the Trump administration and the Taliban signed a withdrawal agreement that requires all American troops to leave by May 1, 2021. The change was driven by Donald Trump’s internal political instincts – not a strategic calculation. President Biden is reviewing that decision wisely.
“I am very pleased with what the Biden government is proposing for Afghanistan,” Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican, said on Sunday. “They are reevaluating our presence in Afghanistan to keep the footprint low, but not to go away and lose all the gains we have achieved.” The White House has not announced a final decision, but Graham expects the United States to remain beyond May.
Many Democrats and Republicans with isolationist tendencies call attention to their calls to end “eternal wars” immediately. But Graham’s comments are a reminder that there is also broad support for a more careful approach. The question is not whether the United States will leave Afghanistan, but whether it will do so responsibly.
The bipartisan Afghanistan study group presented a compelling case of how to do this in its report to Congress this month. The group – former generals, senators, ambassadors and national security officials – suggests replacing Trump’s timeline with a conditions-based approach. “A withdrawal would not only make the United States more vulnerable to terrorist threats,” says the report, “but it would also have catastrophic effects on Afghanistan and the region that would not be of interest to any major player, including the Taliban.”