It may not have been exactly the preview of the NBA finals we had hoped for, but the Brooklyn Nets still had one of their most important victories of the season when they traveled to the Staples Center and defeated the current Lakers champion, 109-98. With Anthony Davis, Dennis Schroder and Kevin Durant on the pitch and several Lakers suffering minor injuries during the game, it was hardly the clash of titans we expected, but for Brooklyn it represents another step towards the champion team that they hope to build.
They entered this west coast trip with a somewhat disappointing record of 15-12, but with four consecutive book wins and three against playoff teams, the Nets appear to be straightening the ship and advancing towards the top of the Eastern Conference. James Harden led the way with 23 points, 11 assists and six rebounds, but it was Brooklyn’s superlative kick that opened the way. The Nets scored 18 points out of 3 on their way to victory. The Lakers only made eight.
The Lakers continue to struggle with Davis’ absence, and with Dennis Schroder discarded due to the league’s health and safety protocols, there is no telling when he will return. LeBron James is used to carrying weaker teams, but if he wants to keep the Lakers in the running for the seed of the Western Conference, he will have to play one of the best basketball of his career. Even a 32-point night, eight rebounds and seven assists was not enough against the Nets.
With so many players eliminated, it’s hard to accept much of this game, but there were still some notable points from Brooklyn’s victory.
LeBron on post
The Nets made a calculated decision on Thursday that will have repercussions if these teams face each other in the finals. Check how long LeBron waits before making his play on the post against Jeff Green.
LeBron is waiting for a double team. He’s doing this for good reason. In addition to the James-Davis pick-and-roll, the Lakers have no better form of attack than LeBron James post-ups and, most of the time, this is the result of overcommitment of defenses. Last season, the Lakers scored 1,262 points for possession, with James passing off the post. For reference, the entire Brooklyn attack this season is scoring 1,179 points for possession this season. Only Nikola Jokic is more dangerous as a post-pass than LeBron. If you give him a 4 on 3, he will find the man open.
Brooklyn didn’t give him a chance. LeBron spent his posthumous possessions waiting for pairs that didn’t come. Now, there are ways to manufacture these doubles. Watch DeAndre Jordan running when LeBron gets the match against Tyler Johnson.
The Nets change everything in defense. LeBron is one of basketball’s fiercest switch hunters. He did this a lot in the competitive part of this game, and the fourth quarters in a Finals match will feature a constant diet of that. If LeBron manages to put small defenders against him on the post, yes, Brooklyn will have to double and hope for the best.
But when they had a quarterback the same size on Green, they played him straight. LeBron won those exchanges with that recovery hopper. It has been one of your greatest weapons this season. But it is a sacrifice that the Nets are willing to make. They prefer LeBron to beat them as a top scorer than as a passer. The numbers support this theory. In general, subsequent passes are more efficient than later launches and LeBron is no exception. But defending LeBron is a matter of probability. You are not arresting him. You are choosing the right poison. The Lakers scored just 98 points on Thursday. The Nets chose correctly.
Brooklyn’s mathematical advantage
The Nets scored 18 points out of 3 against the Lakers’ eight, but the trash time makes that margin look smaller than it actually was. At some point in the third quarter, the Nets had made 16 3’s and the Lakers tried only 17. Think of the huge mathematical advantage that this type of margin offers the Nets. Even with the trash time included, Brooklyn scored 30 points more behind the arc than the Lakers.
Asking the Lakers to make up for these points on a typical night is not exactly an easy task. The Lakers and Nets average about the same number of free-throw attempts per game. The Lakers average an average of five more points in painting per night. Usually, the difference of 3 points will not be that big, but just take a look at who the Lakers are going to play in the playoffs.
|
3-point attempt rate |
3-point trial rate rating |
Percentage of 3 points |
Percentage rating of 3 points |
|
|
Brooklyn Nets |
48.3% |
8 |
40.7% |
two |
|
Milwaukee Bucks |
42.4% |
10 |
39.8% |
3 |
|
Utah Jazz |
41.7% |
1 |
39.3% |
4 |
|
Los Angeles Clippers |
39.4% |
15 |
42.2% |
1 |
The teams that the Lakers will have to win if they win the championship take many 3’s and make the most of them. They all play games with that mathematical advantage, and with the offensive NBA baseline tending more and more towards 3s, catching so few of them (and doing even less) is becoming more and more dangerous. The Lakers are ranked 25th in a 3-point attempt rate and 18 in percentage. They will be at a disadvantage against everyone.
Now, can they still win the championship despite this disadvantage? yea. Absolutely. They just did it. But this year’s best shooting teams are better than ever. It will be significantly more difficult than last season. The Lakers could make their lives easier by picking up more 3’s, and adding even a consistent and sophisticated player would make a huge difference. But now, they are hitting a wall of their own bricks, and it is affecting everything they want to do in the attack.
The Nets can recover
Since Brooklyn acquired James Harden, there has been a desire to view the recovery as a weakness. It is sensible on paper, considering how many minutes to play without a big man, but in reality, it just isn’t true. The Nets ranked 15th in the recovery rate on Thursday. They pull 49.9 percent of the available rebounds. This is the average that the average can achieve and, against the best teams, they tend to do even better.
Consider this with a grain of salt, considering Davis’ absence, but the Lakers are in fifth place in the rebound rate and Brooklyn tied with 39 rebounds each. The Bucks are ranked fourth in the recovery rate and the Nets surpassed them by 55-49. The Clippers are in sixth place and the Nets topped them by 50 to 45. Brooklyn’s 10-1 record against teams over 0.500 is well known, but much of their success against these top teams seems to be concentrated on better rebounds. When it matters, they look good on the glass.
Now, will that be sustained in seven games against Joel Embiid or Anthony Davis? It is hard to say. At the very least, it should be noted that, just as the Lakers have a major handicap kick against the competition, the Nets have a rebound handicap against theirs. Five of the six best rebound teams in the NBA, Jazz, Sixers, Bucks, Lakers and Clippers, are candidates for the championship.
But a small downside of recovery is a small price to pay for everything Brooklyn earns from its micro lineups. Defense is a genuine concern, but for now, being killed in the glass is simply not. The Nets have been doing very well in this regard.