Some of California’s largest counties are now closer to a broader economic reopening than they have been in recent months, with only a handful of COVID-19 vaccines strategically implanted between them and the ability to resume meals on site and receive additional students via -campus learning.
According to new state data released on Tuesday, Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino counties recorded coronavirus case rates low enough to allow them to escape the more rigid, or purple, layer of the four-layer reopening roadmap. from California. The timing of officially landing in a less restrictive category, however, depends on how quickly the vaccine can be administered to residents of some disadvantaged areas.
The magic number of doses is 2 million. Since California has given so many vaccines in low-income countries communities, the state will loosen the criteria, which together with lower case rates will allow these counties to move from the purple level to the more permissive red level. The state’s goal is to administer more doses to areas that fall in lower quartile of the California Healthy Places index, a socio-economic measurement tool.
Currently, counties must have an adjusted rate equal to or less than 7.0 new cases of coronavirus per day per 100,000 people to move to the red level. After the state reaches its 2 million dose target, which is likely to occur this week, counties with a case rate of up to 10 new cases per day per 100,000 people will become eligible for the red level.
As part of this effort to address inequalities in vaccine administration, California is now dedicating 40% of its supplies available to residents in the most disadvantaged areas.
This adjusted limit positions California counties to more quickly lift stricter coronavirus-related restrictions on businesses and public spaces.
According to the existing criteria, none of LA, Orange or San Bernardino counties would be in a position to advance from the purple category this week.
However, as all three reported adjusted case rates of less than 10 new cases per day for 100,000 people in the past two weeks, it appears that they will be allowed to move soon after the state overcomes its obstacle to vaccination.
“Our understanding is that, within 48 hours after the state announces that the vaccine trigger has been fulfilled, LA County, along with other counties with qualified case rates, would move to the red level,” said the director of public health. from LA County, Barbara Ferrer, to the County Council of Supervisors Tuesday.
California is about 103,000 doses below its target, according to the latest available state data.
The most recently released average coronavirus case rates, which are adjusted based on the number of tests performed, were 5.2 in LA, 6.0 in Orange County and 6.7 in San Bernardino.
A month ago, the calculated case rates were 31.7 in Los Angeles County, 29.7 in Orange County and 32.7 in San Bernardino County.
Other areas of Southern California have experienced similar sharp declines and are also approaching a possible shift to the red level. The latest adjusted case rates tabulated by the state were 8.3 for Riverside County, 8.8 for San Diego County, 9.7 for Santa Barbara County and 9.1 for Ventura County.
However, all of these counties would need to register case rates below 10 for another week to be eligible to advance under the state’s flexible criteria.
Although the red layer is the second most stringent in California’s reopening plan, reaching that category still offers much broader opportunities for resumption of business and other activities.
Red tier counties may allow indoor restaurants and cinemas to reopen with a capacity of 25% or up to 100 people, whichever is less. The face-to-face classes could also be resumed for students from the 7th to the 12th grade.
Indoor gyms and dance and yoga studios can open at 10% capacity. Museums, zoos and aquariums can open indoor activities at 25% capacity, and non-essential stores and libraries can open at 50% capacity, above 25%.
State officials also announced last week that amusement parks could be reopened, with restrictions, in red-tier counties starting April 1 – meaning long-closed attractions like Disneyland, Universal Studios, Knott’s Berry Farm and Six Flags Magic Mountain in Southern California can be a few weeks away from once again receiving visitors.
Capacity will be limited to 15% for parks in counties that are at the red level, with the limit increasing to 25% when a county changes to orange and 35% when it reaches the softest, yellow level. Participation will be limited to visitors from the state.
However, state rules are for reference only. Counties have the power to impose additional restrictions – meaning that it is not certain that a region will be fully reopened immediately after meeting state requirements.
In LA County, for example, Ferrer said, “We are looking closely at science to understand what practices help reduce community transmission of COVID-19.”
Everyone, she said, must remain “extraordinarily cautious, because we’ve been here before” – apparently on a promising path just to see the coronavirus recover with fierce intensity.
“We are not going to go back to a risky situation that puts our progress on hold again,” she said. “But more importantly, this is really the time to keep each other alive so we can all get vaccinated.”
It remains to be seen whether LA can choose to postpone when it comes to certain activities – such as indoor dining – but some county officials said they think the region would do well to follow state guidelines.
“Being different from that now, I think it would cause confusion and probably a lot of anger because there are so many places out there, entities that have really suffered,” said supervisor Janice Hahn on Tuesday.
Supervisor Kathryn Barger said she was concerned that having a patchwork of different rules could encourage “travel between counties to participate in different activities”.
“It is my hope that we will be able to align with state rules so that our residents can see the way forward, our business is not at a disadvantage,” she said.
Even without changes to the level limits, nine counties were cleared to move to a less restrictive category this week.
Six – Alameda, Butte, Calaveras, Imperial, Santa Cruz and Solano – went from purple to red.
The counties of Mariposa and Plumas have moved from the red layer to the next orange layer, while Alpine county has become the sole occupant of the yellow layer.
The progression of counties from level to level fits with California’s continuing emergence of its devastating fall and winter coronavirus wave.
In the past week, California reported an average of 4,270 new cases of coronavirus a day, a 37% reduction from two weeks ago, according to data compiled by The Times.
“We have returned to the daily case numbers that are now what we call our pre-peak levels, and this is wonderful news,” said Ferrer. “But it is extremely important to remember that continuous declines are not inevitable.”
The number of coronavirus-positive patients in California hospitals also plummeted, reaching 3,766 on Sunday, with 1,065 in intensive care units.
Both figures are the lowest since mid-November.
Along with the imminently achievable dose limit of 2 million, state authorities have set an additional goal of administering a total of 4 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine to residents in the target communities.
Once this happens, the state will further rewrite its reopening plan to make it easier for counties to enter the orange and yellow layers.
The limit to progress to orange would be relaxed from a requirement of less than 4.0 new daily cases per 100,000 residents to less than 6.0. Entering the yellow level would require an adjusted case rate below 2.0 new daily cases per 100,000 people, compared to the current requirement of less than 1.0.
It is not clear how long it will take to reach the 4 million dose mark. Last week, providers across California administered an average of 203,566 doses per day across the state, the Times data shows.
Governor Gavin Newsom said on Monday that the state is seeing “more and more progress each day as we are reopening our economy and reopening our schools safely for face-to-face public instruction”.
“The light is really strong at the end of this tunnel,” he said during a meeting in Tulare County.