Southern California is expected to take giant steps toward something more like pre-pandemic life, as some economic restrictions that have been in place for months are close to being lifted, with some major changes possible in a matter of days.
This newest normal will still be a considerably different world, however – one marked by strict and continuous capacity limits for business, required masks and social distance, and reduced or modified operations in public places of all shades, including schools, cafeterias, restaurants, gyms and Disneyland.
With coronavirus cases dropping dramatically from the harrowing heights of autumn and winter peak, Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino counties are now on the verge of stepping out of California’s purple layer, the most prohibitive of the four color-coded reopening categories of State.
This trio of large urban counties could move on to the more tolerant red layer in a matter of days. Ventura, Riverside and San Diego counties are a little further away, but are ready to do the same next week.
The change in categorical tone has significant ramifications for local economies that have long been crushed by the closures and interruptions of COVID-19.
At the red level, counties may allow indoor restaurants and cinemas to reopen with a capacity of 25% or up to 100 people, whichever is less. The face-to-face classes could also be resumed for students from the 7th to the 12th grade. Indoor gyms and dance and yoga studios can open at 10% capacity. Museums, zoos and aquariums can open indoor activities at 25% capacity, and non-essential stores and libraries can open at 50% capacity, above 25%.
While the change alone will not trigger a radical economic recovery, it will allow some of the hardest-hit industries – tourism and food among them – to begin the long journey out of the hole in which the pandemic plunged them.
Renowned Southern California theme parks – centerpieces of the region’s normally robust tourist economy, such as Disneyland, Universal Studios, Knott’s Berry Farm and Six Flags Magic Mountain – have been closed for almost a year. Entering the red level will allow them to finally open their doors to visitors, albeit with capacity initially limited to 15%.
This means that the theme parks will be much less crowded, but operators are still taking the chance to reopen them.
Disney Chief Executive Bob Chapek told shareholders on Tuesday that he expects Disneyland Resort theme parks in Anaheim to open “in late April”.
In another sign of momentum, an interim agreement reached on Tuesday between the teachers’ union and the LA Unified School District brought schools a critical step closer to a return to campus from mid-April.
The agreement, which must be ratified by members, establishes safety parameters for returning to campus and presents a markedly different schedule that still depends heavily on online learning.
The school day would take place in a format called a hybrid – meaning that students would conduct their studies on campus for part of the week and continue their online studies at other times. Families would have the option of keeping students in distance learning full-time.
The new optimism is being fueled by two related developments: sustained falls in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations for COVID-19, and the slow but safe increase in vaccinations.
And state officials are now linking California’s economic destiny to these two trends in a way they didn’t before.
In an attempt to address the stubborn injustices that have affected the launch of the vaccine in the state, California is now dedicating 40% of its supplies available to residents in the most disadvantaged areas.
The other magic number, at least as far as reopening is concerned, is 2 million. Since California has administered so many doses to low-income people, communities – as identified by the California Healthy Places Index, a socioeconomic measurement tool – the state will relax the criteria so that counties change from purple to red.
Currently, counties must have an adjusted rate equal to or less than seven new cases of coronavirus per day per 100,000 people to move to the red level. After the state reaches its 2 million dose target, which is likely to occur this week, counties with a case rate of up to 10 will become eligible for the red level.
According new state data launched on Tuesday, Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino counties recorded rates low enough to allow them to escape the purple layer as soon as this new criterion comes into effect.
As all three have recorded adjusted case rates of less than 10 in the past two weeks, it appears that they will be allowed to move as soon as the state overcomes its vaccination hurdle. Without the change, none of them would be in a position to move forward this week.
California currently has about 103,000 doses below its target, according to the latest status data available.
County case rates illustrate how quickly California emerged from the darkest days of the surge.
The most recently released rates, which are adjusted based on the number of tests performed, per 100,000 residents, were 5.2 in LA, 6.0 in Orange County and 6.7 in San Bernardino.
A month ago, the calculated case rates were 31.7 in Los Angeles County, 29.7 in Orange County and 32.7 in San Bernardino County.
Other areas of Southern California have experienced similar sharp declines and are also approaching a possible shift to the red level. The last adjusted case rates tabulated by the state were, per 100,000 residents, 8.3 for Riverside County, 8.8 for San Diego County, 9.7 for Santa Barbara County and 9.1 for County of Ventura.
However, all of these counties would need to register case rates below 10 for another week to be eligible to advance under the state’s flexible criteria.
Although officials are generally optimistic about the reopening, they said there are some cautionary notes in the data.
Daily coronavirus cases continue to decline in LA County and California, albeit at a slower rate than in recent weeks. COVID-19 hospitalizations have also declined.
But across the country, there are concerns about reducing the decline in new daily cases of coronavirus. There is growing concern about the arrival of a fourth worldwide wave of the pandemic; authorities are concerned about cases that began to rise in Europe in the last week of February, after six weeks of decline, said Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer.
The hypercontagious variant of coronavirus in the United Kingdom has spread rapidly across the United States and is now responsible for at least 10% of the circulating cases of coronavirus in LA County.
The worrying New York strain of the virus was identified in an outbreak of 11 people at a university in Los Angeles County, “and we will likely see more of these cases in the coming weeks,” said Ferrer. “We are at risk of delaying the pandemic if we do not continue to reduce transmission while our vaccination numbers increase.”
The authorities said that this is a delicate moment, with the reopening of companies even with the supply of vaccines still limited. Following the rules will be essential to prevent another wave, they said.
“Although vaccines provide a powerful additional layer of protection, we still don’t have enough vaccinated people to prevent another – which would be disastrous – increase in cases, unless we remain committed to using the tools we have at hand – our prevention tools. masking, detachment and hand washing – whenever people are close to others who are not at home, ”said Ferrer.
In general, counties have followed the state’s guidance for reopening, but they have the ability to add restrictions if deemed necessary. LA County supervisors are expected to discuss the reopening rules in particular this week, with some supervisors urging the county to allow businesses to reopen with rules as permissive as the state allows.
Ferrer noted that a study by the United States’ Center for Disease Control and Prevention found that allowing meals in on-site restaurants was associated with increases in new deaths, while wearing masks was associated with decreases in new deaths.
She also noted that senior federal officials have asked states to be cautious about reopening, given the emergence of variants and the growing number of cases.
Times staff writers Hugo Martin and Jaclyn Cosgrove contributed to this report.