Mass production will begin on third generation AirPods in the third quarter of 2021, according to an investor note from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo that was viewed by MacRumores.
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If mass production is not scheduled to begin by the third quarter of 2021, it would mean that irAirPods 3 would not be launched until the end of the year. Kuo said earlier in November that AirPods 3 would be launched in the first half of 2021, and other rumors suggested that the new AirPods could be launched later this month.
There have been several leaks depicting the redesigned third-generation irAirPods, which usually suggests that the launch is close, and Kang, a well-respected leaker who often shares accurate information about Apple’s plans, recently said that the AirPods 3 are “ready for the shipping . ”
Kuo expects “AirPods” shipments from the first quarter of 2021 to the third quarter of 2021 to decrease by about 25% year-over-year, to 55 million units. If demand for AirPods 3 is better than expected, fourth quarter AirPods shipments will remain stable year after year at 23 million units. General PAirPods shipments in 2021 are expected to decline to 78 million units, from 90 million in 2020.
Kuo says AirPods Max offered “limited help” for irAirPods shipments, with an annual shipment of around one million units.
It is not clear at this point whether AirPods 2 will cease to be produced when AirPods 3 go into mass production. Kuo says Apple has a dilemma – if the AirPods 2 remain around and are sold at a lower price, it could affect the demand for the AirPods 3, but if there is no low-priced AirPods model, it could have an effect negative impact on Apple sales.
If AirPods 2 reach the end of their useful life after mass production of AirPods 3, we estimate that AirPods 3, AirPods Pro, AirPods 2 and AirPods Max will represent around 40%, 28%, 31% and 1% of total shipments, respectively, in 2021. If AirPods 2 continues production after the mass production of AirPods 3, we estimate that AirPods 3, AirPods Pro, AirPods 2 and AirPods Max will account for around 32%, 28%, 39% and 1 % of total remittances in 2021, respectively.
Kuo attributes the decline in AirPods shipments to increased competition and loss of market share. There are a number of cheaper real wireless headset options on the market for Apple to compete.
The competitive advantage of Apple products lies in providing “hardware, software and service” ecosystem integration, not just hardware. The iPhone, for example, has seen its market share drop due to the rapid growth of the smartphone market, but it has been able to maintain the growth of shipments because of the strong ecosystem of the App Store and developers. We believe that Siri is the core of the AirPods software and service ecosystem, but since Siri’s competitive advantage is not significant, the gap between vAirPods’s vanguard and that of its competitors narrows due to the lack of ecosystem protection as competitors gradually improve their user experience and launch lower price strategies at the same time. We believe that mini HomePod and HomePod shipments were significantly lower than expected for the same reason.
AirPods have quick pairing and quick switching features that give them an edge over competitors, but Kuo says those advantages are “gradually offset” by improved user experiences and lower prices offered by competitors.
In terms of high quality, while the low latency of AirPods Pro is about 50% improvement vs. AirPods 1 and 20% improvement vs. PAirPods 2, and offers active noise cancellation, sales results show that consumers are not very willing to spend more than in the US $ 100 to buy AirPods Pro outlets.
Kuo says that if Apple wants to improve AirPods sales in the future, hardware innovation, such as health management functionality, is needed to differentiate the headphones from similar products offered by competitors.