Earlier this week, Reuters reported that Apple is targeting 2024 for the production of its long-standing electric vehicle with “next level” battery technology, but Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes a launch is unlikely until 2025-2027, at the very least. .
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In a research note today, obtained by MacRumors, Kuo said that Apple’s car specifications have not yet been finalized, adding that he would not be surprised if the vehicle’s launch deadline was further postponed to 2028 or later:
We predicted in a previous report that Apple would launch the Apple Car in 2023–2025 […] However, our latest research indicates that the current Apple Car development schedule is unclear and, if development starts this year and everything goes well, it will be launched in 2025–2027 at the very least. Due to changes in the electric / automotive vehicle market and Apple’s high quality standards, we would not be surprised if the Apple Car launch schedule was postponed to 2028 or later.
Kuo said the market was “overly optimistic” about the Apple Car launch schedule and advised investors to avoid buying Apple Car-related shares at this time.
Although he does not believe that the Apple car has a chance of success, Kuo said there is uncertainty about how competitive Apple would be in the electric / automotive vehicle market due to the company’s delay in deep learning / artificial intelligence:
The market has high expectations for the Apple Car. Still, we remind investors that while Apple has a variety of competitive advantages, it is not always successful in new
the business. For example, Apple has failed to enter the smart speaker market. Demand for HomePod and HomePod mini was less than expected, and the development of new models of smart speakers has been temporarily suspended. Competition in the EV / self-driving car market is more fierce than in smart speakers, so we think it is dangerous to come to the conclusion that the Apple Car will succeed.If Apple Car wants to succeed in the future, the main success factor is big data / AI, not hardware. One of our biggest concerns about the Apple Car is that when the Apple Car comes out, the current autonomous car brands will have accumulated at least five years of big data and will be conducive to deep learning / AI. How does Apple, a laggard, overcome this gap?
Reuters said the Apple autonomous vehicle will feature a unique “monocell” battery design that “frees up space within the battery, eliminating bags and modules that store battery materials”, potentially resulting in greater range per charge.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently reacted to Apple Car rumors on Twitter, claiming that a “monocell” battery is “electrochemically impossible”. Musk also stated that “during the darkest days” of Model 3 production, he approached Apple CEO Tim Cook to discuss the possibility of Apple acquiring Tesla at a fraction of its current value, but Cook apparently refused to meeting.
Altogether, it seems that the Apple Car remains a distant reality.