The Selection Show is over. The bracket is complete. Now, let’s wait for the opening round games and let the Madness begin.
Stanford is first in the tournament this year, while UConn, NC State and South Carolina complete the rest of the championship. Maryland, Texas A&M, Baylor and Louisville received all No. 2 seeds.
There are some fantastic clashes in the first round, with Michigan facing Florida Gulf Coast, Oregon playing South Dakota and Gonzaga facing Belmont, to name a few. The UNC, led by sophomore coach Courtney Banghart, is back in the tournament for the 28th time and will have a fun game in the first round against the 7th Alabama champion.
As we prepare for the start of the tournament this weekend, with the first round games being played on Sunday and Monday, here are five conclusions from Monday’s key reveal.
The official key for the NCAA 2021 women’s basketball tournament can be found here.
The tournament committee hit the top row
There were six teams that had a legitimate argument for a No. 1 seed in the tournament with Stanford, UConn, NC State, South Carolina, Maryland and Texas A&M all completing fantastic regular seasons. Baylor and Louisville were right behind that group, but there was some separation that made it clear that the Bears and Cardinals would be number 2 seeds.
The Stanford-UConn debate is a good one and it certainly could have happened anyway, but I think the committee got it right in this case. Stanford suffered consecutive defeats to Colorado and UCLA in the middle of the season, but outside of that, Stanford excelled and won a number of tournament teams, including Arizona, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon State and Oregon. UConn achieved some great victories over teams like South Carolina and Tennessee, but the Cardinal’s overall body of work, participating in the Pac-12 and winning, made his case for the general seed a little better.
I wasn’t sure if the committee would reward NC State with a No. 1 seed, especially after losing to UNC and Virginia Tech, but it did, and I think it was the right decision. Wolfpack formed a fantastic resume, beating two teams in South Carolina and Louisville, who were first in the AP Poll at the time that NC State defeated them. In addition, in both games, Wes Moore’s team won on the road.
South Carolina, which played without a doubt the most difficult schedule in the country, while participating in the most difficult league, also deserved the first place. Gamecocks marched in their conference tournament and, although they lost a few games during the season, Dawn Staley’s team is easily one of the top four in the tournament.
UConn and Baylor are on a collision course
The UConn Huskies are the No. 1 seed in the Riverwalk region and are looking for their 12th national championship. Associate head coach Chris Dailey will lead the Huskies at least during the first weekend of the tournament, as technician Geno Auriemma works with COVID-19 protocols.
If the Huskies get 16th place in High Point, and then 8th place in Syracuse or 9th place in South Dakota, they will be one win away from entering a regional final, which could pit them against the current national champion. Baylor Bears. Kim Mulkey took his team back to the NCAA Tournament and is looking for his fourth national championship.
These two teams were scheduled to play on January 7, but the game was canceled. We can get a remake here on a neutral block in San Antonio with a trip to the Final Four on the line. Two of the country’s most effective attacks and defenses would be on full display, in a game that would see freshman Paige Bueckers face off against NaLyssa Smith, Didi Richards and the current national champions.
A possible UConn-Iowa clash on Sweet 16 would be a lot of fun, but I don’t see Iowa or Kentucky defeating the Huskies. Tennessee is the number 3 seed in the region and is likely to face Baylor on Sweet 16. This is a really intriguing showdown, especially the way Tennessee has been playing for the past month, but the Bears are likely to win. In that case, we will have a Final Four battle at Elite Eight, which will certainly happen.
These are the five must-see matches of the first round
There are a lot of great matches scheduled for the first round of the tournament, which should be a lot of fun to watch. Here are the top five that I’m looking at as we move into the opening round.
- No. 8 Syracuse vs. No. 9 South Dakota St.
- No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 12 Belmont
- No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 South Dakota
- No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 11 Florida Gulf Coast
- Alabama No. 7 North Carolina No. 10
SEC depth should have been rewarded
The SEC included seven teams in the tournament, but there is certainly an argument that they deserved more. The SEC was undoubtedly the most difficult league in the country this season and, without so many scheduling opportunities in the non-conference, we saw two teams – Ole Miss and Mississippi State – end the season at 0.500 or less .500 in play at the conference .
When looking at the number of teams that were in the bubble, and the teams that made the tournament, anyone can find something to discuss and choose knitting, but at the end of the day, the teams that were selected certainly won their bid for the tournament. For Ole Miss and Mississippi State, not winning an offer for the tournament is one thing. Not even being one of the top four outs is another.
I’m going to focus on Ole Miss here, because although there is a case to be made for the state of Mississippi, it is simply not as strong as the case of Ole Miss. Mississippi St. was 1-5 against the top 25 on the NET and 2-8 against the top 50.
When looking at Ole Miss, he had four wins over tournament teams, including two over Kentucky, as well as wins over Alabama and Arkansas. They are also in 41st place in the NET ranking, which is a higher ranking than the number of teams that entered the tournament or are one of the first four teams eliminated. Although the NET rankings are not the end of it, my question furthermore is how do the victories compare to the victories that Ole Miss has gathered?
I understand that their 4-10 league game record left a lot to be desired, but this was the best league in the country this year and they proved that they can beat very, very good teams.
The Final Four will not be ‘chalk’
This has been an unpredictable season in many different ways and the next month is bound to be more unpredictable than ever. Although I am not determined to make my final four predictions yet, I am confident to say that the four finalists will not consist of all the first seeds.
The first reason is that No. 2 seeds are too good. With Baylor, Maryland, Texas A&M and Louisville holding the second position, you are looking at two conference tournament champions in Baylor at the Big-12 and Maryland at the Big Ten, as well as two teams at the Aggies and the Cardinals, who held the position number 1 in our CBS Sports survey and was also ranked first or second in the AP survey at some point during the season. Each of these teams has incredible attacks, led by the Indian tortoises, which are the first in the country in the attack, while Baylor also boasts a scoring defense among the top 15 in the country.
In addition to seed # 2, you have seed # 3 and seed # 4 that are able to make a good run in the tournament. I don’t see any team with seed below No. 4 reaching Final Four, but teams like UCLA, Arizona and Georgia – all No. 3 seed – are certainly able to get there. Indiana can have the best draw of any of the No. 4 seeds as well, and while the other No. 4 seeds West Virginia, Kentucky and Arkansas certainly have tougher roads, they have shown that they can compete with any team in the country.
I will have my regional and Final Four predictions later this week, but one thing is for sure, the Final Four will not consist of all the first seeds.