In such a strange and upside-down year, should we have expected anything more?
Kentucky’s No. 1 recruiting class and the group of talented transferees emerged and fought hard on the way to arguably the worst start to the season in the program’s history.
The Wildcats are 1-6, have had a secret fight against Transylvania in the middle of the week and are desperate for answers on how to play together. The hope is that things are about to change with the start of a new season in the form of a conference.
Normally, the SEC game is when we start to see John Calipari’s team click each season. But when the Wildcats’ open conference takes place on Saturday, there is nothing to indicate that this group will reach its strength soon. The defense is playing well, but the attack has paralyzed this team in almost all defeats. The Cats scored 64, 62 (twice), 63 (twice) and 59 points in their six losses. You will not win many games even against average teams while fighting just to reach 60 points.
Kentucky will now face the Mississippi State Bulldogs at 6 pm on Saturday, aiming at the grand task of setting a conference record that will take the Wildcats to the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs come with a 6-3 record, with defeats to Clemson, Liberty and Dayton.
The good news for the Bulldogs is that they are coming from their first victory over a Power 5 team this season, an 83-73 triumph in Georgia on Wednesday. Georgia was previously undefeated, so this was a really solid victory for the state of Mississippi, which is currently ranked 71st by KenPom.
To put this in perspective, Kentucky has defeats to Richmond (57), Georgia Tech (74) and Notre Dame (91), so the Bulldogs will be opponents of similar quality to the teams that have already bothered the Cats.
Bulldogs are led in scoring by second-year guard Iverson Molinar, who averages 18.7 points per game. Their offensive approach is very heavy, with three players representing almost 70% of the total points.
Second-year guard DJ Stewart Jr. and second-year striker Tolu Smith complete the threat of scoring with three heads, scoring 18.2 and 13.1 points per game, respectively. Smith leads the team in the 8.6 rebound per game.
An offensive force for the Bulldogs has been Kentucky’s Achilles heel, which is the three point kick. The state of Mississippi is hitting 38.3% of its bottom shots as a team, which is in 36th place nationally, compared to Kentucky, which hits only 25% of bottom, which is in 320th place.
The state of Mississippi is leaving a three-point performance at 12/27 (44.4%) in Athens. Stewart (47.5%) and Molinar (51.9%) are absolutely shooting out. If those two get hot, it can get out of Kentucky very quickly.
The state of Mississippi is ranked 214th nationally in three-point defense, which can help Kentucky fighters find a rhythm.
In addition, the Cats ‘three-point defense is at 37º, so they can have what it takes to slow down Bulldogs’ hot shots.
A similar strength that both teams have is rebound, as Kentucky ranks 58th nationally in rebounds per game and 21st in offensive boards per game, compared to Bulldogs ranked 31st and 12th, respectively.
Wildcats’ rotation still seems to be in limbo. Cam’Ron Fletcher is back on the team, but he probably won’t be available on Saturday. Coach Cal said Dontaie Allen will have a chance to shine at the SEC opening, but has too much pressure been put on talent in the state? Depending on who you believe, he was somewhere between Carlton Banks of Fresh Prince of Bel-Air and Reggie Miller during the secret fight against Transylvania.
BJ Boston still leads the Wildcats in scoring, but his game has been very discouraging lately. Kentucky’s best player recently was Davion Mintz, transferred from Creighton, who scored 19 points in Kentucky’s defeat against Louisville. Mintz is also the only member of the Wildcats that is shooting better than 35% of the depths.
To win this game, Kentucky will have to defend the three-point line, get something on the offensive side of the frontline players and find a way to keep Boston and Terrence Clarke going.
Will Kentucky lose its 7th consecutive game? Or will the SEC game be a new season for the Wildcats?
Kentucky Wildcats (1-6) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-3)
Location: Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville, Mississippi
Meeting: Saturday, January 2
Start time: 18:00 EST
Television channel: SEC Network
Stream online: WatchESPN and fuboTV.
Radio: Tom Leach and Mike Pratt will have the UK radio network call 630 AM, 98.1 FM in Lexington and the UK Sports Network.
Repeat: WatchESPN and the SEC Network (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | MSU
Box scores from the last game: UK | MSU
Odds: ESPN’s match prediction gives the State of Mississippi a 65.3% chance of victory. KenPom, however, gives Kentucky a 53% chance of victory.
Prediction: KenPom is predicting a 67-66 victory for Kentucky.
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