After another game broke out at the decisive hour, the Kentucky Wildcats are expected to recover on Tuesday against the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Arkansas comes into play with a 14-5 record and is looking for a high seed in the SEC tournament, assuming it is one. They have been entering this game without playing since February 2, after Saturday’s clash with Texas A&M was postponed due to problems with COVID-19 under the Aggies program. Therefore, Razorbacks will enter the game on Tuesday with some potential rust, but also more rested than Cats.
The Wildcats dropped to 5-12 and do appear to be in a free fall after three consecutive defeats, the last two of which Kentucky is in control during the second half. Keion Brooks Jr. moved up and is now Kentucky’s top scorer with 11.8 points per game. But in the final stretch against Tennessee, when the defense focused on him, there were no other good options for getting buckets.
Razorbacks have a balanced attack with four players averaging two digits. His top scorer is freshman guard Moses Moody, averaging 16.4 points per game, including five games with more than 21 points. It is also being designed as a first-round pick in the NBA’s 2021 Draft.
The Hogs don’t play much, as five of their seven best players are guards, but in fact they have one of America’s largest centers in Connor Vanover. The second year of 7-3 has an average of 7.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.0 blocks in just 18.8 minutes per game. Kentucky is already struggling to lose layups at close range, and driving to the edge with Vanover wandering through the painting will only make life more difficult.
Junior guard JD Notae (13.7 ppg), senior striker Justin Smith (11.3 ppg and 6.7 rpg), senior guard Jalen Tate (10.6 ppg and 4.5 apg) and junior guard Desi Sills (10.6 ppg) complete Arkansas’s double-digit markers.
Another name to watch out for is freshman guard Davonte Davis, who is starting to emerge as a legitimate option for the Hogs. He reached double digits in three consecutive games and five in the last eight, including a 20-point exit in a home win against Georgia.
Arkansas is not a particularly strong pitching team, but as we saw this season, the Rupp Arena often magically turns opponents into snipers behind the three-point line. The best three-point shooters in the Hogs are Moody (35.2%) and Tate (38.3%).
Arkansas has won four of its last five, with its only loss occurring in the state of Oklahoma at the SEC / Big 12 Challenge. Although they don’t have big wins on their schedule, they also don’t have bad losses. The worst loss in his history was probably at LSU, which is a difficult place to play.
At this point, Kentucky is playing for pride. Yes, in theory, a SEC tournament win would put them in the NCAA tournament. But this team will have an uphill battle to enter any postseason tournament. Your current resume is a laughing matter for the NIT committee.
Big questions arise when team success is no longer an option. Will players start to be more selfish to increase numbers and a better position in the draft? Will the guys start choosing to leave or transfer? Or will they continue to push each other to play time and battle in practice?
This sea has obviously been a catastrophe, but any victory you can gain at this point will alleviate the pain. Kentucky can certainly beat this team from Arkansas, but they will have to play a basketball brand different from the one we saw most of this season.
Kentucky Wildcats (5-12) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (14-5)
Game time: 19h ET on Tuesday, February 9
Location: Rupp Arena in Lexington, KY
Television channel: ESPN
Stream online: WatchESPN and fuboTV (free trial).
Radio: Tom Leach and Mike Pratt will have the UK radio network called 630 AM, 98.1 FM in Lexington and the UK Sports Network.
Repeat: WatchESPN and the SEC Network (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | ARK
Box scores from the last game: UK | ARK
Statistics to know: UK | ARK
Odds: Arkansas opened as a 1.5 point favorite. The Cats have failed to cover six of their last seven games. ESPN’s match prediction gives Arkansas a 61.8% chance of victory. KenPom gives Kentucky a 46% chance of victory.
Prediction: KenPom projects that the Hogs win 70-69.