Earlier this week, ESPN’s Tim Bontemps published the results of a poll he conducted to assess the status of the MVP race as we approach the middle of the season. The 100 media members involved had LeBron James by a very wide margin, but second was a player who undoubtedly had a better and more impactful season: Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid.
It is still too early to really dive into the MVP race and debate the merits of the various leading candidates, but it is worth taking a look at Embiid, who is riding the best season of his young career. Almost two months after the start of the 2020-21 campaign, Embiid averages 29.1 points, 11 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game, while shooting 54.7 percent of the field.
His scores and efficiency are at high levels in his career, and the impact he has on the success of the Sixers could not be more obvious when you look and look at the numbers. Philly is 17-3 when Embiid plays this season, and only 1-4 in the five games he lost. In their 640 minutes on the court, the Sixers have an offensive rating of 117.5, and in their 565 minutes on the bench they have an offensive rating of 102.6. That’s the difference between the second and the last in the league. They are, in essence, two completely different teams with and without Embiid.
The great man has been one of the main drivers of the team’s success since he was healthy enough to play consistently, but this season he raised the bar. How, though, you might be asking yourself. Well, one of the most interesting and noticeable trends with Embiid is that he has become the best mid-range shooter in the league.
It’s not good, it’s not great, the best. He’s making an absurd 56.8% of his 4.8 mid-range attempts per game. Of the 21 players averaging at least four of those shots, only six others are shooting 50 percent or more, and none have been as efficient as the Embiid.
In fact, what Embiid is doing this season is historic. The zone-based shooting data on the NBA statistics website only dates back to 1997, but in those more than 20 years you will find only one player who has taken at least four mid-rangers per game and won a higher percentage than Embiid is winning in this one. season: Stephen Curry in 2012. That’s right, literally the greatest sniper to ever exist.
What is perhaps most interesting, however, is that there was no trend here to suggest that this would happen. Embiid completely circumvented any kind of gradual improvement and went from medium to historical in a single jump.
(Note: your shortened debut season is not included in this chart.)
|
2020-21 |
2.7 |
4.8 |
56.8% |
|
2019-20 |
1.9 |
4.7 |
40.2% |
|
2018-19 |
1.3 |
3.6 |
36.1% |
|
18-2017 |
2.0 |
4.7 |
44.0% |
This, of course, opens up the possibility that this is an extended heat wave. But while we have to monitor this trend to see if it continues, especially considering that there were no fans or limited crowds during this strange COVID-19 season, we cannot rule out what Embiid has been doing.
When you see Embiid operating, what stands out immediately is how it has been in control and deliberate this season. Watching him take a step and a fake bomb until he has the defense right where he wants is like watching an artist paint his masterpiece. The movements may seem strange at first or in isolation, but in general they are beautiful. Even the way his right leg taps softly as he disappears adds an artistic touch.
Now, all this does not mean that Embiid has become one of the best players in the league only because he’s shooting mid-range lights. He’s still a force around the hoop, hits the free-throw line more often than any other player in the league, and makes life a lot easier for the rest of his teammates, drawing a lot of attention. And it is not even affecting the defensive side.
But when you’re doing something few players have done before, it’s worth digging into the details, especially when it looks like it comes from nowhere. The big question now is whether Embiid can maintain this mid-range domain.