A chance for every American. Political leaders and vaccine makers have been striving to meet that goal since the pandemic began, and it could finally become a reality this summer.
An advisory committee of the Food and Drug Administration will vote on Friday on Johnson & Johnson’s recommendation for a single-dose coronavirus vaccine for emergency clearance. An FDA review on Wednesday showed that the injection is safe and effective against COVID-19.
If the J&J shot gets the green light as expected, it will be the third injection of coronavirus to be distributed across the United States. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have been administered to more than 45 million Americans so far, although less than 21 million Americans have received the full two-dose regimen.
Pfizer and Moderna have pledged to distribute 600 million doses to the US public by the end of July – enough to fully vaccinate 300 million people. J&J, meanwhile, said it could deliver up to 100 million doses of its vaccine by the end of June.
This means that in the summer, the United States would have more than enough doses to vaccinate all of the more than 332 million Americans (although vaccines have not been authorized for children under 16 yet).
Here is a timeline of how vaccinations can increase in the next five months:
- March 31: 240 million doses distributed
- may 31st: 420 million doses distributed
- June 30: 500 million doses distributed
- July 31: 700 million doses distributed
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are each more than 90% effective in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, while the J&J vaccine appears to be 66% effective in preventing moderate and severe cases. However, it is difficult to compare companies’ tests side by side, as they took place at different stages of the pandemic and in different geographical regions.
End of March: Completion of vaccinations for priority groups
J&J originally planned to deliver 12 million doses by the end of February. But federal officials said that only 3 to 4 million doses would be immediately available in the next week, assuming the FDA authorized the injection.
By the end of March, the company will likely have produced 20 million doses, said Richard Nettles, vice president of medical affairs for J&J in the United States, at a House committee hearing on Tuesday.
Jeffrey Zients, the White House coronavirus czar, called J&J’s slow manufacturing pace “disappointing” on Wednesday. But the government has started to help the company acquire equipment and raw materials, he said, which is accelerating the pace.
Pfizer and Moderna, for their part, are on track to distribute 220 million cumulative doses by March 31.
UPS employees move a shipping container with Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine inside a screening facility in Louisville, Kentucky, on December 13, 2020.
Michael Clevenger – Pool / Getty images
At Tuesday’s hearing, Pfizer’s business director, John Young, said the company plans to make 120 million doses available by the end of March (including the approximately 40 million doses shipped so far). Moderna President Stephen Hoge said the company will deliver 100 million doses (including 54 million that have already been sold) within the same timeframe.
This means that the United States may finish vaccinating priority groups – including the elderly, essential workers and people with high-risk medical conditions – in the next month. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that these groups cover around 200 million people.
End of May: the general population makes its decisions
In total, the three pharmaceutical companies are expected to deliver around 420 million doses by the end of May. Vaccination for the general public may be in full swing in April.
Pfizer is on track to produce an additional 80 million doses by the end of May, bringing the company’s total in the United States to 200 million. Moderna originally planned to deliver an additional 100 million doses to the United States by the end of June, but now they are due in May.
People wait in line at a Disneyland parking lot to receive the COVID-19 vaccines in Anaheim, California.
Valerie Macon / AFP / Getty Images
Both companies are still trying to speed up their vaccine launches.
Pfizer told USA TODAY that it added more production lines in its factories, reduced the time needed to produce batches of vaccines and will soon reduce the time needed to make DNA for the vaccines. In January, the FDA also instructed vaccinators to squeeze six doses of each bottle of Pfizer vaccine, instead of the five that were initially authorized in December.
Hoge said Moderna is “working to allow up to 15 doses per bottle in the short term”, instead of the 10 vaccinators now extract.
A recent report by the American Enterprise Institute, a right-wing think tank, found that 50% of the US population could be protected from COVID-19 in mid-May, if the J&J shot was allowed. Without the third vaccine, it could take another two to three weeks to reach that point, the researchers said.
End of June: all adults can have an injection
Nettles said J&J could deliver up to 100 million doses of vaccines by June 30 (including the 20 million doses of spring). That would bring the total number of coronavirus vaccines distributed in the United States to 500 million – enough to vaccinate 300 million people, or all of the approximately 259 million adults in the United States.
Federal officials still hope that J&J can accelerate that schedule.
“We are working with the company to accelerate the pace and timeframe for the total delivery of 100 million doses, which is required by contract by the end of June,” said Zients on Wednesday.
The American Enterprise Institute estimated that 75% of the United States population could be protected from COVID-19 in mid-June through the end of June, assuming that the J&J shot is authorized.
A dentist receives the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine in Anaheim, California, on January 8, 2020.
score Rightmire / Getty Images
End of July: US may have surplus doses
By the end of July, the United States could have more vaccines than it is capable of delivering.
Experts do not expect the country’s approximately 73 million children to start receiving coronavirus vaccines by autumn or winter – or perhaps in early 2022 – because there is still no data on the safety or efficacy of vaccines among groups of children. younger ages. (The exception is the Pfizer shot, which is allowed for people over 16.)
Both Pfizer and Moderna intend to deliver an additional 100 million doses each by the end of July, bringing the companies’ total doses to 300 million each. The United States did not buy more than that, although it has the option of buying 200 million more doses of J&J, Moderna and Pfizer.
According to the American Enterprise Institute, “the addition of a third [vaccine] candidate will mean that anywhere from 22% to 33% more of the population can be vaccinated by July. “