Jaylen Brown knows math. A shot behind the 3-point line is worth more than one from within it. A shot closer to the basket is more likely to go than one farther. Free throws are, well, free, making them the easiest of all.
“Obviously, three and layups are pictures that we want to take and that are good for our team,” said Brown recently during a Zoom press conference. But he added a warning: “If I get a medium-sized open photo, I think this is good for our team, too.”
This season, Brown turned that approach into a weapon. Not only is he making nearly twice as many mid-range shots as he did last year, but according to NBA.com tracking data, he also punched 56.8% of them, with most out of dribbling. To put it in context, Kevin Durant, one of the best mid-range snipers outside dribbling of all time, has never shot better than 55.1 percent in these types of looks over the course of an entire season.
Brown, 24, was a quasi All-Star last year, but so far this season, he played at a level that would make him a sure thing for that honor – and put him in the conversation for the Most Improved Player and an All – NBA team. He is still smothering the opposing scorers and has doubled his assistance fee, but his biggest leap came as a top scorer. He accumulated 27.1 points per game, good for seventh place in the league – a huge increase from the 20.3 he averaged last season and more than double his production in 2018-19.
The Celtics lost Gordon Hayward (his fourth top scorer last season) to Kemba Walker (his second top scorer) in the first 11 games of the year due to a knee injury and Jayson Tatum (his top scorer) for five games to COVID-19. And they are still 10-7 and hovering at the top of the Eastern Conference standings. They can thank Brown’s stellar game – and particularly his hot midrange shot.
“His biggest improvement and where they really developed, outside of dribbling he is really difficult,” said Sixers coach Doc Rivers, who has faced Brown and the Celtics twice this season, during a Zoom press conference this week last.
The Celtics once had one of the league’s top scorers at Tatum. Brown’s emergence means that they now have two offensive studs and – given how young, versatile and committed to defending both players are, and that they are both signed for several seasons – one of the most important pairs in the league.
Of course, whenever a player makes a leap, the issue becomes one of sustainability. And if you peek under the hood of Brown’s performance, what stands out is not just how effective he has been in the middle, but also how often he has taken these photos and how unlikely it looks like he can maintain his current efficiency.
Brown is hitting the edge less often: 29 percent of his photos came around the edge this season, compared with 36 percent last season, according to Cleaning the Glass. He’s taking a smaller share of three as well. The only shot he makes most often is the dreaded midsize long jumper, who accounted for 19 percent of his appearance – basically double his mark last season.
Part of this is expected as a result of the Celtics riding Brown, whose usage rate of nearly 30 percent – an increase of 6.5 percentage points from last season – is one of the league’s highest numbers. This required Brown to create more looks for himself, rather than relying on teammate settings, which can force a player to be less selective. But the fact that Brown is gaining weight with the type of strokes that have proved most difficult (pull-ups), and the area of the floor considered less efficient (mid-range), is a red flag. The fact that, over the course of an entire season, he never fired more than 44% of that floor area is also not a good omen for his future prospects. Also, take a look at the best mid-range snipers from previous seasons and you’ll see a list of the game’s best free-throw snipers – players who routinely convert over 85% of those skins. Brown, on the other hand, is shooting 77 percent of the line this season and is a 69 percent shooter of his career in the charity belt.
So does all this mean that Brown’s entire escape was a mirage and that we should be expecting an accident? Not exactly.
On the one hand, Brown’s entire offensive game has improved. He clenched his fist and became adept at deflecting corners as he probed and manipulated the defense. “You can see the game is slowing down for him,” said Micah Shrewsberry, a former Celtics assistant who spent three seasons training Brown before taking over as associate coach for the Purdue men’s team in 2019. “He’s seeing the things differently ”.
In Brown’s time on the court this season, 18.8 percent of his teammates’ baskets have left their settings. This is not only almost double its mark from last season (9.6 percent), but it is also in the 89th percentile among all wings, according to Cleaning the Glass.
The fact that his turnover rate has fallen is a testament to the greater comfort as a defender in the attack. Brown also finished 6% more of his shots in the ring and, perhaps most importantly, became one of the league’s best long-range snipers. Last season, he hit 38.2 percent of rock bottom. This season, he is punching 44.1 percent of his triples, while launching six per game.
It is also important to remember that not all teams follow Daryl Morey’s absolutism when it comes to medium-sized strokes. The Celtics finished with the league’s fourth best attack last season and tenth best last season. Still, in those seasons, and despite being as analytically inclined as any NBA team, they finished 15th and seventh, respectively, in the proportion of deep midfield shots (pitches between 14 and 28 feet).
“Each defense is trying to eliminate layups and three,” Celtics coach Brad Stevens said during a recent Zoom press conference. “So when your best players have the opportunity to pull you up in a rhythm pull-up, I don’t think that’s a bad thing. … As long as you don’t decide to shoot them every time, then these are things that do us good. “
In other words: it is one thing to dance with the ball for three seconds in isolation and then take a step back from inside the hoop. Another is to wrap yourself around a canvas, see a big man falling into the painting and decide to get up for an undisputed elbow jump. There is a difference between putting pressure on a defense and saving it.
Brown understands this, and the Celtics are more comfortable with how he gets his shots. The key from now on is that Brown will slowly adjust his approach. Turning downhill a little more often in pick and roll and taking advantage of its improved rim finish and free throw would be a good place to start. The Celtics would also love to see you move some of your strokes behind the 3-point line and get closer to about 10 deep attempts per game. Part of that will come naturally with Walker and Tatum now back in the fold, which should give Brown more opportunities to shoot from the screens for three to catch and shoot, a shot he is converting 46.5 percent of the time.
But even if Brown sees his mid-range shooting numbers plummet, there is no reason to believe that he cannot hover in his 40s or even around 50 percent. He’s a big 6-foot-6 kite, with a high launch, and he’s a good jumper. As Stevens said, “He is able to stand up and jump over guys and not be affected by some of these challenges.” The midsize outlet may not be fashionable, but it is also not dead. Players like Kawhi Leonard – whose trajectory for Brown stardom is starting to emulate – and teams like the Golden State Warriors have proven how valuable a weapon that shot can be, especially at playoff time, when games slow down and defenses come in. On the scene. fluctuate around 54 percent to match the current effective percentage of the league’s field goal, but that also doesn’t take into account tripping on the ground where the equation is either a Brown pull-up or a lost possession.
And anyway, focusing on a future regression would be missing the point, which Rivers summed up last week:
“Great intermediate game, great to the basket, great three,” he said of Brown. “When you have all these things, you are one of the best offensive players in this league. And he is.”
NBA Advanced Stats contributed research.