Yoshihide Suga
Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota / Bloomberg
Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota / Bloomberg
An increase in coronavirus cases in Japan has dealt a blow to Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s once-strong public support, increasing the risk that he will be replaced by the ruling party before an election to be held in October.
Suga had one of the highest approval rates ever recorded for a new prime minister in September, when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party installed him as its leader. But with poll numbers dropping as sharply as coronavirus cases are rising, questions are arising as to whether he can join the long list of Japanese premieres forced to leave after short seasons.
“It is likely that they will seek to vote for a more popular leader in the party leadership election in September,” said Yu Uchiyama, professor of political science at the University of Tokyo, adding that “many LDP lawmakers” were concerned about their prospects under the Suga flag. “The party leader is the face of the lower house election.”
Support for Suga’s office fell 7 percentage points from the previous month to 33% in a survey published by the Mainichi newspaper on Saturday, compared with 57% of respondents who said they did not support the cabinet. New research released by Yomiuri and TV Asahi also showed declines.
Suga is expected to deliver a political speech after the new parliamentary session opens at 2 pm Monday, when he will be able to outline plans to add penalties to a virus management law. The session offers the prime minister a chance to try to regain support for his government before a crucial decision about moving forward and hosting the Tokyo Olympics, an event scheduled to start in July that he said he is determined to hold despite opposition growing.
Suga, 72, came to power promising to maintain the ultra-easy monetary stance and other policies that helped make his predecessor, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister the longest. At the same time, the farmer’s son signaled greater focus than his longtime boss on pocket issues, such as cell phone tariffs. He devised a dual strategy of strengthening the economy and, at the same time, containing the virus.
The promise of continuity helped send the Nikkei 225 Average Shares to a historical record in terms of dollars in January, even as the economy staggered after the worst slowdown on record. But public opinion quickly began to sour after Suga blocked a group of academics who criticized Abe’s policies from an academic advisory body and a campaign finance investigation involved several of the former prime minister’s top advisers.
At the same time, the government was increasingly criticized for maintaining its “Go-To” travel campaign to stimulate domestic spending, despite concerns that it was helping to spread the virus. Suga resisted the growing calls from regional leaders to declare a state of emergency – rekindling a debate that toppled Abe’s popularity before he resigned due to the return of a chronic illness.
Suga finally declared an emergency for the Tokyo region on January 7, after several announcements of record infection, a move that about 80% of respondents in a survey by public broadcaster NHK said it was too late. Last week, he added other areas, including the Osaka region, placing a part of the country that accounts for more than half of the country’s economic output under restrictions.
The expansion also reinforced the likelihood that the world’s third largest economy will decline again this quarter. Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said on Thursday that the current area could be expanded, depending on infections.
Nishiki market in Kyoto, January 14th. The government was increasingly criticized for maintaining its “Go-To” travel campaign, despite concerns that it was spreading the virus.
Photographer: Kosuke Okahara / Bloomberg
“There was no crisis management strategy under the Abe government,” said Tomoaki Iwai, a professor at Nihon University in Tokyo. “He maintained that line and paid close attention to the economy and other factors.”
To make matters worse, Japan is unlikely to start mass vaccination until February. And media research shows a growing consensus that the Tokyo Olympics, already postponed one year until July 2021 due to the pandemic, should be postponed again or canceled – something Suga vowed not to allow.
The Prime Minister does not have much time to change things. Japanese law requires an election in the lower house until October. Suga is serving the last year of Abe’s three-year term and will need to get support from the LDP to stay after September.
Suga’s party has held power for almost four of the past 65 years, thanks in part to an often disorganized opposition. AN the merger of the two largest opposition groups last year did not increase support enough to pose a serious threat, although the governing coalition may face a reduced majority.
Former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, one of the two LDP opponents that Suga defeated to secure the party’s leadership post, said on Sunday at BS Asahi that he planned to run for office again this year. Other potential candidates to replace Suga as leader of the LDP include Nishimura, Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato and Minister of Administrative Reform Taro Kono.
However, current cabinet members can also be held responsible for the government’s failures, Iwai said. This could even lead the LDP to turn to a robust old man: Abe.
“Since there is no one else, people can start talking about bringing Abe back,” said Iwai. “It is a sad situation.”
– With the help of Andrew Davis, Erica Yokoyama and Lily Nonomiya
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