A buyer uses a hand sanitizing station at the Ameya Yokocho market in Tokyo’s Ueno district on December 30.
Photographer: Noriko Hayashi / Bloomberg
Photographer: Noriko Hayashi / Bloomberg
Japan’s second state of emergency is expected to last a month, but public health experts have already expressed doubts that four weeks is enough time to slow the coronavirus that is spreading at an alarming rate.
With residents increasingly facing virus fatigue and no legal framework to enforce compliance, the country can fight to quickly reduce the trend of infections, experts say. Japan reported new daily records of infections for at least two days last week, with numbers accelerating in the capital, Tokyo. On Friday, Tokyo reported 2,392 confirmed cases, the second highest so far after Thursday’s record.
“I’m not sure if the situation could improve in a month,” Hitoshi Oshitani, professor of virology at Tohoku University and a member of the panel of experts advising the government, told Bloomberg News. “It is certainly much more difficult to control the current situation compared to the outbreak in the summer.”
People dine at a restaurant at the Ameya Yokocho market in Tokyo on December 30th.
Photographer: Noriko Hayashi / Bloomberg
Japan enacted a more limited emergency this time, with the main objective of reducing restaurant hours and encouraging remote work. Cinemas, gyms, karaoke and theme parks, all closed during last spring’s emergency, are expected to remain open at reduced hours, while large events will still be allowed at reduced capacity.
Although the measures apply for the time being only to the capital Tokyo and three neighboring prefectures, Osaka regional authorities will also ask the government to expand the emergency to include what is the country’s second largest metropolitan area. The neighboring prefectures of Osaka should follow suit, limiting activity to more of the country’s economy.
Regions under emergency will need to emerge from “Stage 4,” the highest governmental designation for the pandemic, for status to be suspended. The steps examine factors such as medical capacity, number of patients, positive test rate and weekly increase in new infections. Experts will continually examine the data to determine which areas serve which phases, they said.
Emergency landing
Cases increased in the four areas under Japan’s second state of emergency
Source: Tokyo Metropolitan Government; Kanagawa, Chiba and Saitama prefectural governments
Read more: What does Tokyo’s second state of emergency mean?
Shigeru Omi, the head of the expert panel advising the government who said earlier this week that it would be “almost impossible” for Japan to exit the emergency within a month, changed his tone when he informed the press along with Prime Minister Yoshihide Quinta Suga.
“It is not very easy,” said Omi, “but I believe it is possible to reduce infections to a Stage 3 level in a month, if everyone does their best.” Omi said people need to follow the suggested measures to stay home and avoid eating and drinking at night, but it has been a difficult task to keep young people out of those places, where the virus spread during the pandemic.
Upcoming legal changes, which will include the ability to fine establishments that refuse close requests, as well as formalizing payments for cooperation, would also be necessary, he added. The government will seek to amend the related legislation when the Diet resumes on January 18.
Yoshihide Suga on January 7.
Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota / Bloomberg
The emergency that Japan enacted last spring began with a declaration to seven prefectures. This was later expanded to the entire country and extended in duration, before being stepped up in late May.
Japan, which won initial praise for its ability to contain the virus without rigid blockages, saw challenges arise in its strategy of “living with the virus” as winter approached. Cases began to rise across the country in November and increased last week, especially in regions near Tokyo.
Shops closed in Tokyo’s Akihabara shopping district in early April.
Photographer: Soichiro Koriyama / Bloomberg
Tokyo Failure
The country has been struggling to attract public cooperation in the same way it did in the spring. Authorities fear that concern about the virus is easing, while many bars and restaurants, already overburdened last year, may be reluctant to cooperate with requests for closure.
The serious situation in Tokyo is probably due to the failure to enact stricter measures in early December, said Oshitani. Areas like Osaka and Hokkaido have asked restaurants to close at 9 pm or completely, as the month is a peak season for drinks and dinners, with social groups and workplaces holding traditional holiday parties.
“In December, Tokyo was unable to implement aggressive measures – that’s probably why we are seeing the upward trend, especially in the Tokyo metropolitan area,” said Oshitani. “It was important to implement more aggressive measures in December because of the holiday season.”
Read more: The scientist who saved Japan once faces a new virus outbreak
Although the Tokyo authorities he asked people to avoid these celebrations, the effect was limited. Data from the virus task force showed that while the number of people in the entertainment districts of Osaka and Hokkaido fell dramatically after requests for closure, traffic increased in Tokyo.
Oshitani said he was hopeful that as January and February tend to be quiet social periods in Japan, people will heed calls to stay home and slow the spread of the virus.
“I believe we can still control the situation,” he said. “It totally depends on changing people’s behavior.”
– With the help of Gearoid Reidy
(Updates with Tokyo case numbers and Osaka emergency request.)