The Green Bay Packers must press and beat Tom Brady to defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC title game, making Sunday an ideal time to release the emerging defense star.
Rashan Gary has a real chance of being a factor X player for the Packers against Brady.
Since Week 16, Gary has been second among rushers in total pressure (14, despite playing in only three of the four possible games) and the first in passing race productivity, by Pro Football Focus. Perhaps your efficiency as a rusher is the result of a lower snap count and the opportunities involved in being a third edge rusher behind two established starters. Or maybe Gary could make even more of an impact if he was more on the pitch.
In the last three games, Gary has had just 52 passing pressures. Approximately once every three quick pass clicks, it provides pressure.
The Packers would certainly need to repeat that ratio on Sunday against Brady.
Internal pressure has been the best way to fight Brady, who may be the best at making subtle movements in his pocket to avoid edge rushers, create space and find launching lanes. Collapsing your pocket and limiting your ability to climb into your pocket will be critical, and the Packers have two players – Kenny Clark and Za’Darius Smith – capable of creating the necessary disturbance within themselves.
However, the pressure on the edge cannot be discounted, even against Brady. Remember the AFC 2015 title game. The Denver Broncos pass-rush hurt and beat Brady, firing him four times and hitting him 17 times. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware delivered three sacks and 11 hits as edge rushers, and the Patriots scored just 18 points, despite Brady having thrown 56 times. He ended up with two interceptions and a passer rating of 56.4, one of his worst postseason performances.
Hitting Brady 17 times may not be realistic on Sunday, but the Packers’ pass-rush has the opportunity to control the game much like the Broncos did five years ago.
Gary, Clark, Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith can be a formidable quartet like rushers. This group has to play a fantastic game on Sunday, and it can certainly benefit Mike Pettine’s defense by giving Gary more chances to interrupt from multiple quick pass angles, especially in obvious downs when Za’Darius Smith can kick in. He has been very effective in such an important job to be an important player in the biggest game of the season.
Remember that this is not just a sample size of Gary’s three games. Consider this incredible PFF statistic:
% Of highest pressure since week 10:
1. Rashan Gary – 18.7%
2. Aaron Donald – 18.6% pic.twitter.com/HEopntahaQ– PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) January 23, 2021
At the Packers’ first meeting against the Buccaneers, Gary played only 17 snaps in total and ran only 10 times. He applied one of the Packers’ six pressures, but he had not yet become a trusted member of the pass-rush. Its jump in the second year was only postponed.
In Week 10, Gary had the decisive game of his second season, delivering seven pressures against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He has been as disturbing as Aaron Donald on a snap basis ever since, creating an impressive progression for a talented young player playing in real time on a Super Bowl contender.
In just his last two home games, Gary has run 35 times and created 13 pressures. Veteran Preston Smith may find ways to impact the game in other ways, but he has only 28 total pressures in 421 quick passes spread across 17 games.
The Packers are on the verge of the Super Bowl, but a football giant is on its way. To beat Brady, the Packers need their best on the field. And Rashan Gary, without a doubt, has emerged as one of the best, especially in terms of doing the thing they need most to beat Brady the Bucs. Pressure.
It’s time to launch # 52 in the NFC title game.