Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will run for his fourth election in two years on Tuesday, fighting for a parliamentary majority that could help him undermine his ongoing corruption trial.
Why it matters: Three inconclusive elections have left Israel trapped in a protracted political crisis as Netanyahu struggles for its political and legal survival. This time, the Israeli Prime Minister has long faced divided opposition and has a clear opportunity to finally win a majority of 61 seats.
The current situation: The latest polls show that Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc and a broad anti-Netanyahu bloc have won 60 seats.
What to watch: If Netanyahu reaches 61, he will form the most religious and conservative coalition in the country’s history. Its rivals say that such a government could challenge the democratic character of the country.
- Netanyahu denies that he plans to fire the attorney general or pass laws to suspend his trial for corruption, but several of his alleged coalition partners have expressed support for such measures.
- If the Netanyahu bloc narrowly fails to win a majority, it is likely that Israel will move on to a fifth round of elections.
Driving the news: Both Netanyahu and his main rival, centrist Yair Lapid, gathered their bases on the eve of the election.
- Lapid needs to increase participation in Tel Aviv, Haifa and other major cities in central Israel.
- Netanyahu is trying to mobilize voters in the strongholds of his party, Likud, in the north and south of Israel and in Jerusalem.
- The result may be an issue of which small parties on both sides reach the 3.25% electoral threshold to enter the Knesset.
- Attendance among Israel’s Arab minority, which is expected to fall this time around, will also be crucial in determining the outcome.
Flashback: Netanyahu and his centrist rival, Benny Gantz, signed a power-sharing agreement last April that outraged many of Gantz’s supporters by allowing Netanyahu to hold power for 18 months, while stipulating that Gantz would then be prime minister.
- Before power could change hands, the government collapsed in December, along with Gantz’s political position.
Zoom In: One of the most interesting players in this election is Naftali Bennett, a former right-wing technology entrepreneur who until recently was seen as a creator of kings because no bloc would be able to reach 61 without him.
- The numbers of his party’s polls began to drop when Netanyahu told supporters that Bennett would ally with Lapid against his conservative colleagues.
- Under pressure, Bennett went on a pro-Netanyahu channel and signed a document on live TV promising not to join a government led by Lapid – effectively aligning himself with Netanyahu.
What is the next: Exit surveys will be published at 9 pm local time (3 pm ET), but researchers will be extremely cautious because thousands of ballots will be counted late due to COVID-19 restrictions.
The final result: These elections are likely to be decided by one or two seats, which means that a few thousand votes can change the outcome and the whole country.
Go deeper: Thousands are protesting in front of Netanyahu’s home.