Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hoped to declare victory over the pandemic ahead of the March 23 elections, but new variants of COVID-19 that spread quickly dashed those hopes.
Why does it matter: Netanyahu’s main political vulnerability is his way of dealing with the pandemic. He acknowledged that his poll numbers will be directly related to vaccination rates, new infections and deaths, as well as his ability to reopen the economy.
He wanted to base his election campaign in Israel’s world-leading vaccination campaign, which has seen 21% of the population over 16 years get both doses, including 70% in the highest priority groups (medical workers and people over 60).
- But Israel is also in the midst of its worst wave of COVID-19 so far, with the daily death toll reaching record levels. The capacity of the medical system is stretched close to a breaking point.
- Four weeks of blockade has only begun to decrease the rate of new cases in Israel, which remains among the highest in the world, adjusted for the population. Israeli officials say the rapid spread is due to new variants of the virus.
- The government should extend the blockade for another week or two.
Between the lines: The infection rate is particularly high in ultra-Orthodox communities, which largely did not comply with the blocking rules and kept schools open even when closed elsewhere.
- Netanyahu has faced harsh criticism for not imposing a blockade among the ultra-Orthodox community, which forms an important part of his right-wing political bloc.
- When the police tried to impose the blockade in recent days, violent riots broke out in ultra-Orthodox cities. This only generated more criticism of Netanyahu.
- A Channel 12 poll published on Tuesday found that 61% of Israelis – and 52% of right-wing voters – want ultra-Orthodox parties to be excluded from the next coalition government.
The situation: Recent polls have shown that Netanyahu’s Likud party is stable with 29-30 seats, with public praise for the vaccination campaign offset by criticisms of the blockade and the increased death toll.
What is the next: Netanyahu’s broader political bloc lacks the majority of 61 seats needed to form the next coalition. Without a positive change in COVID-19 numbers by March, he will have a hard time achieving it.