JERUSALEM (AP) – Israelis vote on Tuesday in their fourth parliamentary election in just two years. Once again, the dispute is reduced to a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for the past 12 years, hopes voters will reward him for leading the successful launch of the coronavirus vaccine in the country and its diplomatic reach to the Arab world. His opponents highlighted his first missteps in the coronavirus strategy, his reliance on religious divides and ultranationalist allies, and his ongoing corruption trial.
Over the years, Netanyahu has developed a reputation as a political magician and master of manipulation, able to survive any crisis. With witnesses prepared to take a stand against him next month, Netanyahu hopes for another miracle that could result in a more friendly parliament willing to grant him immunity or freeze his trial. Opponents portray him as a serial liar who caused two years of political paralysis by putting his political survival and legal problems ahead of the country’s interests.
Opinion polls predict an extremely fierce dispute, increasing the possibility of a continuing stalemate and even an unprecedented fifth consecutive election. Netanyahu appears to have a slight advantage because of the complexities of Israel’s political system.
In Israel, people vote for parties, not individual candidates. Netanyahu’s Likud is again ready to emerge as the largest single party. But since no party has ever won a 61-seat parliamentary majority on its own, political alliances must be formed to create a government coalition. If opinion polls are accurate, Netanyahu will have a clearer way to build a government than the series of rivals who have little in common besides their animosity towards him.
Here is a look at the key factors that can determine whether Netanyahu or any of his opponents can win the elusive 61-seat majority.
VACCI-NATION: Netanyahu staked his hopes for re-election on the success of Israel’s vaccination campaign. Netanyahu last December acted quickly and aggressively, personally lobbying the CEOs of Pfizer and Moderna to ensure enough vaccines for the 9.3 million Israelis. In less than three months, Israel vaccinated around 80% of its adult population. With infection rates plummeting, which allowed the country to reopen schools, restaurants, museums and the main airport just in time for election day.
Opponents accused Netanyahu of cheating in the management of the pandemic during the past year. A series of roadblocks has hit the economy hard, thousands of companies have gone bankrupt and unemployment remains in the double digits. Many also have bitter memories of Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies breaking the blocking rules and point to more than 6,000 COVID-19 deaths in the country.
With the economy coming back to life, Netanyahu hopes that the growing sense of normality will make voters forget last year’s hardships. This may explain that, although polls show that the majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to be replaced, he is also seen as the most suitable to be prime minister.
“In people’s minds, especially when you go to an election, there is the identity of the prime minister,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Institute of Democracy. “In many ways, this works in favor of Netanyahu because it is not clear who the opponent is.”
SHOULD I STAY OR GO: Opinion polls indicate that about 15% of voters remain undecided. Tuesday’s election will depend not only on who these voters support, but whether they choose to vote.
Analysts expect turnout to be less than the 71% level of last year’s most recent election, in part because of continuing concerns about the coronavirus along with general voter fatigue. Israel is offering special accommodations, including separate booths and mobile polls, to allow sick or quarantined people to vote.
However, more important than general attendance will be voter participation in key sectors. Netanyahu’s religious and nationalist allies tend to have highly motivated voters. On the other hand, Arab voters, disappointed with the disintegration of the umbrella group “Joint List”, are expected to stay at home in greater numbers this time. Voters in the more liberal and secular areas around Tel Aviv also tend to have lower participation rates. Netanyahu can benefit if these trends materialize.
ON THE EDGES: This election may well depend on the display of some small parties. To enter the Knesset, or parliament, a party must receive at least 3.25% of the vote, giving it a minimum of four seats in the 120-seat body.
Researcher Camil Fuchs said that four small parties are hovering close to the threshold. Of these, the dovish Meretz party and centrists Blue and White are “much more in danger” of not getting enough support, according to recent research, he said. Both are members of the anti-Netanyahu bloc.
The Zionist religious party, a small pro-Netanyahu faction that includes openly racist and homophobic candidates, appears to be gaining momentum. If one of the anti-Netanyahu parties fails to enter, a strong display by religious Zionists could help put Netanyahu on the edge.
THE KINGMAKERS: Despite the fierce race, neither Netanyahu and its religious and hardline allies, nor the anti-Netanyahu bloc, led by Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party, should win the majority of seats on their own.
This sets the stage for Netanyahu’s former adviser Naftali Bennett to emerge as the decisive voice in building the coalition. Bennett’s Yemina party supports the same hard-line ideology as Likud. But the two men have a notoriously tense relationship, and Bennett has refused to commit to either side.
Given his similar worldviews, Bennett, who served as Netanyahu’s minister of education and defense, appears to be more suited to joining Netanyahu than the anti-Netanyahu bloc, which ranges from peaceful Arab parties to Netanyahu’s former allies -hard who had bitter personal breakups with him. Still, if he had the chance to be prime minister, Bennett could side with Netanyahu’s opponents.
Some polls predicted that both sides would not form a coalition, even with Bennett’s support. This could create the unlikely scenario for a small Islamic party led by Arab lawmaker Mansour Abbas as kings – or simply force a fifth election.
LACK OF ACTION: In the previous three elections, Netanyahu boasted of his close alliance with then President Donald Trump, posting huge billboards on highways and skyscrapers showing the men together. With Joe Biden now occupying the White House, Netanyahu barely mentioned the new president, whose government welcomed him coldly.
Likewise, there was almost no mention of the Palestinians, reflecting the freezing of years in substantive peace efforts. But Biden indicated that he will soon get back to getting involved with the Palestinians. This can make it difficult for the next Israeli leader to ignore the issue – or Biden.