Polls out of Israel’s fourth election in two years suggested that Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling party, Likud, was ahead, but still lacked a clear parliamentary majority needed to form a government and end the political stalemate.
Unofficial figures from three major television channels released on Tuesday night showed the Likud party with about 31-33 seats in the 120-seat parliament, the Knesset. This was much more than the opposition leader, Yair Lapid, predicted that he would occupy about 16-18 seats.
However, post-poll surveys have not been reliable in the past. Critically, to form a 61-seat majority coalition, Netanyahu will need to convince other parties to join him. Political negotiations may fail, possibly resulting in an unwanted fifth election this summer.
Reacting to the results of the vote, Netanyahu stopped before declaring victory, but said voters expressed a noticeable ideological preference. “It is clear that a clear majority of Israeli citizens are right-wing,” he said on Twitter.
The prime minister hopes voters will give him credit for a worldwide coronavirus vaccination campaign that has led Israel to reopen shops, bars and restaurants at the same time. reducing infection rates.
“We are the world champions in dealing with the coronavirus,” Netanyahu told the crowds before the vote.
At a polling station in Jerusalem, when asked who she wanted to win, voter Sima Levy said, using his nickname: “Always by Bibi Netanyahu”. The 58-year-old realtor added: “What he has done for us and still does, he surrenders across the country … I think he is protected by God.”
The politicians The preferred path to victory would be what is being called the “extreme right government”, composed of extremist nationalist, hardline religious and extreme right parties.
Allies of ultra-Orthodox Jewish factions would be invoked for support, like Aryeh Deri, who said on Sunday that it was not the “natural place” for women to be candidates for the Shas party, which he leads.
The prime minister may also need the support of a group considered even more extreme – an alliance called Religious Zionism, which includes politicians who have expressed anti-homosexual views and want to expel “disloyal” Arabs from the state.
Israel’s most prominent left-wing newspaper, Haaretz, called this potential outcome a “nightmare” for “anyone other than a nationalist extremist who believes in Jewish supremacy”.
Although most Israelis say they want Netanyahu out, he remains extremely popular compared to other candidates, despite facing several charges of corruption, including bribery and fraud. He denies the charges.
Perhaps fatigued after repeated rounds of voting during a prolonged crisis, or possibly due to the unusually dusty hot climate, participation this year appeared to have dropped to its lowest level in more than a decade.
Shortly after voting, Robert Rosenschein, 67, who lives in Jerusalem, said the political stalemate created apathy with the political process. “There is more exhaustion than usual because you also have Covid fatigue,” he added.
In opposition, Lapid, a former TV presenter and finance minister, hopes his Yesh Atid party can become a significant force. However, to do so, the self-proclaimed “centrist” will likely have to forge alliances with parties from across the political spectrum, from Arab parliamentarians to far-right nationalists, such as Netanyahu’s former ally Avigdor Lieberman.
Lapid took on the role of opposition leader for Benny Gantz, a former army chief who has fought Netanyahu in the last three elections, but who lost support after he made a power-sharing deal that ultimately failed. Exit polls showed that Gantz should only have about 7 to 8 seats, down from 33 in the last election a year ago.
More than 6.3 million people were able to vote. On election day, the military closed crossings with the occupied West Bank, where more than 2.5 million Palestinians live under Israeli rule, but cannot vote.
Full results can take days to arrive.
Matti Tuchfeld, a commentator for the daily Israel Hayom, said there were major uncertainties surrounding this election.
Israeli law stipulates that parties need at least 3.25% of all votes to enter the Knesset, which means that fractional changes in ballots can significantly influence the results.
“Nobody knows what will happen this time,” he wrote. “The results of the elections are definitely unpredictable. Only one thing is clear: we should not be surprised if, in the end, we are very surprised.
Q&A
What is happening?
The Israelis voted on Tuesday in the country’s fourth national election in less than two years.
Why would they do that?
Under the country’s political system, it is extremely difficult for a party to obtain an absolute majority in the 120-seat parliament, the Knesset. In the past, governments were formed by parties that came together to form a coalition. However, recent attempts continue to fail.
Because?
It depends on who you ask, and there is certainly an element of bad luck in that. Still, the cracks that kept Israel in limbo are all related to one man: Benjamin Netanyahu. The country’s oldest leader became an obstacle due to his internal division, being adored and hated.
How were the previous three votes?
King Bibi, as he is known, appeared to defeat former army chief and opposition leader Benny Gantz in the first election in April 2019, but was prevented from forming a government by a disgruntled former ally, the extreme nationalist right Avigdor Lieberman. The next election saw Netanyahu and Gantz in a virtual draw and both torpedoed each other’s power struggle. A third vote ended in a government, a compromise in which Netanyahu and Gantz agreed to alternate the post of prime minister. But that business failed in December.
What about Netanyahu’s corruption case?
The 71-year-old leader has been formally accused of corruption – charges he denies – and is expected to continue hearings next month. Political analysts in Israel speculated that Netanyahu broke the last government because he was supposed to hand over power to Gantz. They say he prefers to risk another election in the hope of being able to fight the charges against his powerful position as prime minister.
Has anything changed this time?
Many of the main players remain the same, although some have changed. Gantz, who had campaigned on the promise to topple Netanyahu, but later reneged and joined him, lost a lot of support. Yair Lapid, a former Gantz running mate who appeals to secular middle-class Israelis, is now the head of the opposition.
Is occupation a problem in this election?
Internal politics in Israel has swung to the right, and the fate of millions of Palestinians under Israeli military control has practically disappeared from election campaigns.
When will we know the results?
Voting numbers will begin to emerge from the early hours of Wednesday morning, but counting the votes can take days. If the result is cloudy again, the real battle for power can take weeks. Current polls show an impasse, so there is a possibility that the country faces a feared fifth election.