JERUSALEM – Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday for the fourth time in two years, hoping to break a seemingly endless cycle of elections and a political stalemate that left the country without a national budget during a pandemic.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopes that Israel’s world-leading vaccination program, which has helped the country emerge in the past few days to something close to normal, will give him and his right-wing allies an advantage and the stable majority it has proven to be. evasion in three previous rounds of elections.
But Netanyahu, prime minister since 2009, is running for re-election while on trial on corruption charges – a dynamic that opposition parties hope will lead voters to finally expel him from office.
In reality, however, polls show that no bloc has a clear path for the majority, leaving many Israelis preparing for another inconclusive outcome and a possible fifth election later in the year.
Here’s what else you need to know.
Why is Israel holding so many elections?
The simplest explanation is that, since 2019, neither Netanyahu nor his opponents have managed to win enough seats in Parliament to form a coalition government with a stable majority. This left Netanyahu in office, either as interim prime minister or at the head of a fragile coalition with some of his fiercest rivals, although not entirely in power. This forced the country to vote repeatedly in an attempt to break the deadlock.
Underlying this drama, analysts say, is one of Netanyahu’s motivations to seek re-election – his hunch that he can better fight his accusation from the prime minister’s office. They say he is ready to lead the country to the election after the election – until he gains a stronger parliamentary majority that could grant him immunity from prosecution.
“I don’t know of any serious thinkers who say that Israel is going to another round of elections for reasons other than Netanyahu’s personal interests,” said Gayil Talshir, professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
Supporters of Netanyahu, however, reject the notion that his personal interests have pushed Israel from one election to another. They claim that their critics simply resent the fact that Netanyahu is a fierce and experienced competitor, and blame Gantz for making the coalition unsustainable.
What motivated this fourth election?
A series of disagreements between Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, his rival and centrist coalition partner, culminated in December in the failure to reach an agreement on a state budget. This led to Parliament’s dissolution, forcing a new election, although for the time being the government remains in office.
The rivals joined forces last April, after the third election, saying it was to ensure that Israel had a government to lead the country during the pandemic. Under his power-sharing agreement, Gantz would take over as prime minister in November of this year. But the coalition partners never got along and each side accuses the other of not cooperating in good faith.
Critics of Netanyahu say he acted out of personal interest when he struggled with Gantz over the budget, favoring a one-year plan instead of the two years required by the coalition agreement. The budgetary stalemate, in forcing a new election, gave Netanyahu another chance to form a government, instead of remaining in the current coalition and handing over power to Gantz later this year.
But Netanyahu blamed Gantz for the pause, saying that Gantz refused to commit to Netanyahu in several state nominations.
How did the political stalemate affect Israelis?
The stalemate forced Israel to be without a state budget during one of the deepest economic and health crises in its history, undermining long-term economic planning, including the development of major infrastructure projects.
The strike delayed the appointment of key state officials, including the state attorney and senior executives from the ministries of justice and finance. And coalition members, including Netanyahu, have been accused of politicizing government decision-making even more than usual, seeking any possible advantage in the electoral advantage.
The continuing turmoil, spurred on by Netanyahu’s longstanding legal problems, has reshaped Israeli policy. Voters are now less divided by ideology than by whether they are for or against Netanyahu.
And with the dispute so fierce, Jewish politicians are now increasingly looking to members of Israel’s Arab minority to help break the deadlock. Arab citizens of Israel make up about 20 percent of the population. Once marginalized, they became a key constituency in this election campaign.
Who are Netanyahu’s main rivals this time?
In a sign of how the political map has changed, two of Netanyahu’s main opponents in this election cycle are also right-wing. Gideon Saar is a former interior minister of Netanyahu’s party and Naftali Bennett is Netanyahu’s former chief of staff.
The third main challenger is Yair Lapid, a former centrist broadcast journalist whose party is launching the biggest challenge for Netanyahu.
Gantz is no longer considered a viable threat to the prime minister. The polls suggest that his party may not even be able to win a seat, largely because of anger among its former supporters over its decision to form a unity government with Netanyahu in the first place, an agreement he promised not to join.
How do Israeli elections work?
Parliament, known in Hebrew as the Knesset, has 120 seats that are allocated on a proportional basis to parties that win more than 3.25% of the vote.
The system almost guarantees that no party obtains an absolute majority, often giving small parties a great deal of influence in the negotiation that forms coalitions. The system allows for a wide range of voices in Parliament, but forming stable coalitions under it is difficult.
It can take weeks or possibly months for a new government to be formed – if any can be formed – and at any point in the process, the majority of the Knesset can vote for the dissolution again, forcing yet another election.
In the days after the election, Reuven Rivlin, the president of Israel, will give a lawmaker four weeks to try to form a coalition. He usually gives this mandate to the party leader who won the most seats, which is likely to be Netanyahu. But he could grant it to another lawmaker, like Lapid, who he believes has a better chance of forming a viable coalition.
If that legislator’s efforts fail, the president can give a second candidate four more weeks to form a government. If that process also fails, Parliament itself can nominate a third candidate to try. And if he or she fails, Parliament dissolves and another election is called.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu will remain as interim prime minister. If the impasse continues in some way until November, Gantz may still succeed. The power-sharing agreement that the pair agreed last April was enshrined in Israeli law and stipulated that Gantz would become prime minister in November 2021.
How did the coronavirus affect the election?
In the past few weeks, Israel has sent children back to school, reopened restaurants for indoor meals and allowed vaccinated people to attend shows and theatrical performances.
Netanyahu hopes that the successful launch of the vaccine in Israel, which has given most Israelis at least one dose, will help propel him to victory.
But your pandemic history can also be costly. Some voters believe he politicized certain important decisions – for example, by limiting some fines for violating anti-virus regulations at much lower levels than those recommended by public health experts.
Critics saw this as an incentive to ultra-Orthodox Israelis, some of whom disregarded the coronavirus restrictions on mass meetings. Netanyahu will need the support of two ultra-Orthodox parties to remain in office after the election.
Voting by post is not available in Israel. To prevent the virus from spreading, special polling stations are being installed for quarantined people and patients with Covid-19.
Could there be a fifth election at the end of the year?
Nobody is ruling that out. Netanyahu’s party, Likud, is expected to emerge as the largest party, with about 30 seats. But his allies may not win enough seats to give him a majority of 61.
And while current polls suggest that opposition parties will collectively win more than 61 seats, it is unclear whether their profound ideological differences will allow them to come together.
The main player may be Mr. Bennett. Although he wants to replace Netanyahu, he also did not rule out joining his government.
Patrick Kingsley and Isabel Kershner contributed to the report.