The Israelis will go to the polls next Tuesday for the fourth time in two years, with Netanyahu campaigning aggressively against a fragmented opposition.
Why does it matter: Netanyahu’s narrow path to a 61-seat majority would require him to form a far-right government, dependent on the votes of Jewish supremacists and anti-LGBT and pro-annexation members of the Knesset. With the majority, Netanyahu could pass a law or take other measures to delay or end his corruption trial.
- He denies that it is his goal, but prospective members of his coalition have announced that they would support him.
The current situation: Current polls show Netanyahu’s 58-seat bloc, but things can easily change in its direction on election day.
- Israel’s 3.25% electoral limit means that several small parties will either win about four seats or be left out.
- Voter fatigue, especially on the left, also makes attendance unpredictable.
Three scenarios
- If one or more of the three small anti-Netanyahu parties fail, it could shift the entire balance of power and bring Netanyahu to the magic number of 61. This is a very likely scenario.
- If attendance wanes among Netanyahu’s supporters, and the far-right Religious Zionist Party fails to cross the line, there may be a window for a center-right government composed of Netanyahu’s opponents. This is an unlikely scenario.
- If current polls prove to be accurate and neither side can form a coalition, Israel will move towards a fifth election in the summer. This is very possible.
The fragmentation of the opposition really made life more difficult for Netanyahu in one sense: unlike the last three cycles, he does not have a clear rival on the left to rally his supporters.
- Instead of a head-to-head race in which Netanyahu can repeat the argument that “it is us or them”, he has three opponents, all leading midsize parties.
The other contenders
1. Yair Lapid and the centrist party Yesh Atid (Há um Futuro). A former journalist, Lapid is the current opposition leader in the Knesset.
- What to watch: Lapid has not even stated that he wants to be prime minister and says he is willing to let someone else take over to get rid of Netanyahu. Netanyahu concentrated his campaign on Lapid, but was unable to position it as a direct confrontation.
- By the numbers: Yesh Atid gets about 20 seats in the polls, a distant second place for Netanyahu’s Likud, which has about 30.
2. Naftali Bennett and the right-wing Yamina party (to the right). A former technology entrepreneur, Bennett focused his campaign on COVID-19 and the economy.
- What to watch: Although Bennett emphasized the need to replace Netanyahu, he did not rule out the possibility of joining a government led by Netanyahu. This can make you a king maker if the election results are not definitive.
- By the numbers: Yamina only does research with about 12 seats, but it may be impossible to form a coalition that excludes Netanyahu without giving Bennett the job of prime minister.
3. Gideon Sa’ar and the right-wing New Hope party. Sa’ar, a former Minister of Education and Interior, left Likud in an attempt to position himself as an older, less populist right-wing alternative to Netanyahu.
- By the numbers: Sa’ar’s party fell in the polls, from about 18 to nine in the latest polls.
The end result: Only a power-sharing agreement between Lapid, Bennett and Sa’ar could produce a new Israeli government without Netanyahu. Such cooperation between the three will be very difficult to achieve.