After a sharp decline in the daily cases of COVID-19 in New York City, daily infections are now stubbornly high, at 3,700.
The stagnation coincides with the arrival of a tempting suspect at the scene: a variant known as the B1526, which first appeared in Upper Manhattan in November.
According to the most recent data, as of February 23, the variant accounted for about 34 percent of New York state coronavirus samples tested to see if they contain any of the various variants that spread in the U.S., according to outbreak.info.
This is a five-fold increase over the previous week, when only 6% of New York samples sent to the national GISAID database were positive for B1256 mutations.
But this dramatic increase is not everything. The United States is also finally stepping up this type of testing – which requires scientists to sequence the entire genome of a sample of the virus – making it more likely that they will find the variant.
Virologists warn against these assumptions, especially when the New York City variant is so new and is still being researched.
But the NYC variant contains mutations seen in others who are better at infecting people, and its increasing prevalence may threaten to cause COVID-19 cases to reoccur in New York, as previous falls stop.
The ‘New York’ variant, B1526, was detected in 34% of samples from the state that were tested for mutations, a five-fold increase from the previous week, when it was detected in only 6% ^ of New York samples.
New cases of COVID-19 remain stubbornly high in New York City, where the 7-day continuous average case is 3,700
It also occurs amid administrative chaos in New York.
In addition to facing charges of sexual misconduct, Governor Andrew Cuomo is also under investigation for hiding data about the real burden of COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes.
And getting a clear picture of how the pandemic is going in New York has become increasingly difficult in the months since Cuomo has briefly become a bastion of transparency thanks to its daily COVID briefings.
Now, the New York State Department of Health reports that there were 7,593 new positive tests on Wednesday.
The state recorded 4,025 cases in New York City that day.
New York City stopped reporting daily cases on its health department website, but Mayor Bill de Blasio tweeted that the city saw 3,270 new cases of COVID-19 yesterday.
Meanwhile, Johns Hopkins University data shows 6,564 new cases in New York state yesterday.
Therefore, it is not clear exactly how many new cases of coronavirus there were in the city or state yesterday, but no matter what data is used, the case reduction has stabilized.
The New York variant was first detected in the Washington Heights neighborhood of Upper Manhattan in mid-November.
It is thought that he had the opportunity to develop in a person with advanced AIDS.
Scientists have warned that there are two main opportunities for the virus to take on significant mutations that lead to new strains: high rates of infections and infections in immunocompromised patients, where the virus can last longer, “learn” the human immune system and develop mutations that help you survive the monotonous attacks of our bodies.
The prevalence of the variant also skyrocketed in the United States as a whole, accounting for more than 30% of the samples tested. But Outbreak.info notes that there were fewer samples sent recently, which can skew the prevalence of the variant
The variant was identified around the time New York entered its second outbreak of COVID-19 infections, which also coincides with the holiday season, making it unlikely that the variant was responsible for this increase in cases.
But now that B1526 cases are doubling every month, according to data from outbreak.info, it may be contributing to the high and stable rate of general cases in New York.
Decreases in stagnant cases are being seen across the country. Experts think it is caused by several causes: the presence of more transmissible and infectious variants, such as the UK’s B117 form, ‘pandemic fatigue’ among Americans who are getting tired of wearing masks and staying at home and restrictions being relaxed in many states.
The B117 variant is certainly the most common mutant in the United States (in addition to the wild type).
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed at least 2,500 cases of B117 in 46 states and predicted in January that the variant would become dominant during this month, March.
CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky issued a severe warning about the spread of variants: “Please listen to me clearly: at this level of cases with spread of variants, we can completely lose the ground we have conquered with difficulty,” she said. during a Monday WHite House press briefing.
At least one case of the New York variant has been identified in Sint Maarten, Japan, Singapore, Croatia, Ireland and the United Kingdom, in addition to the 1,113 found in the United States, according to Outbreak.info
The variant has been detected in 22 states, including Texas, MIssissippi, New Mexico, Wyoming, New Jersey and Michigan
“These variants are a very real threat to our people and to our progress. Now is not the time to relax the critical safeguards that we know could prevent the spread of COVID-19 in our communities, not when we are so close. ‘
Variants from South Africa and Brazil are now also in the United States. There are at least 65 cases of variant B1351 from South Africa and 10 cases of variant P1 from Brazil in America.
So, variants grown internally can be a threat to progress in the states where they arose?
Dr. Anthony Fauci is certainly considering this possibility.
He warned that the New York variant is “gaining ground” and said the Biden government is “taking it very seriously” during a news conference on Wednesday.
There is still no solid evidence that the variant is more transmissible or deadly.
But its mutations suggest that variant B1526 is more adept at infecting human cells.
It has mutations in the E484K and S477N locations along its genome.
Laboratory tests and observations of variants with these mutations suggest that they make the virus more difficult to detect by antibodies and make it better at infecting human cells.
Among the variants ‘California’ and ‘New York’, the one in New York is ‘more interesting’ for Scripps Research University immunologist Dr. Kristian Andersen, he said on a Twitter topic.
Like the South African and Brazilian variants, the New York variant seems to ‘evade some Ab [antibody] immunity, in a part of the country with high levels of immunity ‘, wrote Dr. Andersen, referring to the fact that a large proportion of New Yorkers already had COVID-19, since the Big Apple became the epicenter of pandemic last spring.
It is still too early to say whether the variant is what is supporting the case numbers in New York, but Dr. Anderson wrote that it certainly deserves investigation.
And with the now reported variant identified in 22 states, the answer to that question may have national implications.
But it’s important to note that even if all of the scientists’s biggest concerns about the New York variant turn out to be true, it’s still not proven to be more transmissible – meaning that masks and social distance people any person who is sicker or more likely to die, and is unlikely to completely avoid vaccine-induced immunity and antibodies.
In short: it is worth observing and worrying about the variant, but do not panic.
