Aaron Rodgers sat on his couch last Sunday and watched the snow fall in Green Bay. He checked his phone’s weather app to see what percentages the snow would remain in that night’s game against the Titans, hoping it would last.
Yes, of course, and Rodgers felt at home. In a performance that is likely to put him on top for his third career MVP award, Rodgers led the Packers to a 40-14 victory over Tennessee and a step closer to securing the advantage of playing at home during the NFC playoffs. next to a goodbye in the first round. The Packers could win the seed with a win against Chicago or a loss in Seattle this weekend.
In a season in which the advantage of playing at home has practically disappeared in the league, and for a team like Green Bay, which doesn’t need much more than an abacus to count the public in recent weeks, I believe the Packers will profit more than most teams obtaining seed number 1 if and when the results of Week 17 confirm this.
“I think we all hear enough about not winning teams good enough. We didn’t respond and we played a full game, and that was our answer,” said Rodgers after the victory. “I feel good where we are. It is difficult to play in the cold and it is difficult to play in Lambeau.”
I wrote extensively before the season started about the impact that the lack of fans would have on the advantage of playing at home. Studies show that the biggest factor of advantage in the field is the influence of the fans on the referees. And with no or few fans in the stands – and especially with tarpaulins covering the first rows of seats – that influence would theoretically disappear.
This year, the home teams are 120-119-1 going into Week 17. That is the closest margin in the last decade, at least. The home teams surpassed the visitors by 5,944 points, to 5,910 points this year, so just one more road team winning on Sunday and eliminating the home team will essentially make this year a failure.
It is not just because of the empty stadiums that we see such tight margins. Last year, the home teams were 132-123-1 and really were overcome for 30 points. What we do know for sure is that the home game advantage is not worth the three points it was before, and this year it was not even worth the 2.5 points or more for which it had been adjusted. Local teams are 117-123 against the spread this year, so the betting markets never really found out.
Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle are all in the running for seed number 1, and they all showed better-than-expected home advantages this season, compared to the rest of the league and adjusted to their opponent’s strength. These figures came to me with (all) the help of Robby Greer, who does strategic analysis for a startup in Silicon Valley and has an economics degree from Vanderbilt and an MBA from Dartmouth. We worked together on my previous article on the advantage of playing at home and I went to him this week for help with this one.
“Considering the weather, bye bye and a little advantage at home, I think you would probably look at 1.5 to 2 points (Green Bay advantage) depending on the opponent,” says Greer. “This seems low, but in the context of 2020 it is a big advantage at home.”
The Packers have had no more than 1,000 fans in the stands since Thanksgiving, and these people include health professionals, first responders and staff and their families. Team officials still need to know how many fans, if any, will be allowed to enter Lambeau for the playoffs, but it is hard to imagine that they will go from a few hundred to more than 10,000 people.
If the advantage of playing at home is driven primarily by a crowded crowd and no one outside of Dallas has more than a few thousand fans in the stands, then what does playing at home really mean to the outcome of the game?
The only home tested and proven advantage in all sports was seen in Denver, thanks to the altitude. So what if Green Bay offers some kind of perceptible advantage at home in windy, cold and / or snowy conditions?
“I think the cold is something that we always embrace here, and that’s what we practice, that’s what we experience every day,” said Packers coach Matt LaFleur, after the Titans’ victory. “So, our boys embrace that. It’s just that we’ve had some games of bad weather, even more in terms of wind. That’s something that I find a little more challenging than all the snow that’s out there tonight. Obviously, I think I just the guys having an adequate base in these types of situations, I think it is fundamental. “
Rodgers used to talk to former Packers coach Mike McCarthy about the usefulness of big backs in bad weather. From Ahman Green to Ryan Grant, from Eddie Lacy to AJ Dillon, Green Bay usually has big backs to handle the load when the field forces the game plan to be adjusted.
When the tarpaulin is removed from the field before the game, snow begins to enter the grass and make the field smoother. If it’s cold (and colder than Sunday against Tennessee), the field can start to freeze and make it even smoother. The ball is also smoother and more difficult to throw in the wind, so the team that is most familiar and comfortable with these conditions would obviously have an advantage.
The Packers are 15-5 at home in the Super Bowl era, and Rodgers is 4-2 at home in the playoff. Green Bay finished 7-1 at home this year, with their only loss to Minnesota in week 8.
But Greer delved deeper than that and analyzed the numbers from 1999 to today. He found that the Packers have a 1.49 point advantage at home in regular season games played after November 1st than in games played in September and October.
“You look at the 1999 Green Bay data, a very large sample, and you recognize that there is a lot of volatility in these numbers, but on average the field advantage in November and December is a little bit higher. A full point and a half”, says Greer. “There may be something there and something related to that. Maybe seed # 1 would be worth a little more for Green Bay [than others], especially a team like New Orleans and a quarterback like Drew Brees who, despite all his qualities, does not have a good arm. “
The biggest advantage of all, of course, is goodbye in the first round just to seed number one. When the expanded playoffs were first proposed, I thought that taking the runner-up farewell farewell would create a huge advantage for the first place. Yes, the regular season should matter, but giving just one week off to a team and having the other six games in the opening week looked like the league was starting post-season with a major imbalance.
The best article I saw written about it was by Chase Stuart, from Football Perspective. He found that the chances of the seed to reach the Super Bowl in this new format compared to the previous format increased by 5%. Meanwhile, the runner-up’s chances of reaching the Super Bowl decreased by 11.2%. By the way, the last two Super Bowl winners were the top seed in the conference playoffs.
This piece was written before the start of the pandemic and does not take into account the effect of empty stadiums on post-season performance. We’ve never seen anything like it, so any guess as to how it will affect the piece is just that. But, regardless of how you consider the advantage of playing at home, there is no doubt that the seed No. 1’s chances of reaching the playoffs have increased and those of the 2nd seed have decreased.
The advantage of playing at home in the NFL has never been smaller. Add to the mix the climatic conditions that are unique to Green Bay among your potential NFC opponents, along with everything that comes with the No. 1 seed in today’s NFL, and you’ll have what could be the biggest home advantage of all. in a strange 2020 season.
“I have played many of those games, so I feel very good about being able to throw it if there is snow and wind like we did today,” said Rodgers after Sunday’s victory. “This is something we are used to. We practice outdoors. We play this type of game.”
For the choices!
I went 10-6 last week in a week of ups and downs that saw me choosing the Jets to win, but also choosing Dwayne Haskins to win an NFL team. I am now 161-78-1 going into the final week of the regular season. This week has a chance to be a disaster based on who gives the beginners a rest and when. Oh well. Lets do this!
Dolphins on beads
1 pm, Sunday, CBS
This is the most difficult game to choose this week. For me, it all comes down to this: Bills is already considering these final games as the postseason. They are playing as the second best team in the NFL – not just AFC. I don’t see Buffalo slowing his momentum, and I believe Miami will need some help on Sunday to reach the playoffs.
The choice: Accounts
Jets in Patriots
1 pm, Sunday, CBS
If the Jets had Frank Gore or La’Mical Perine available for this game, I might as well choose Fighting Adam Gases to end the season with three consecutive wins. But I just don’t know how the Jets are going to keep the Pats defense in the air without a reliable running back. Bill Belichick is almost done answering questions about his quarterback for another four months.
The choice: Patriots
Cardinals at Rams
4:25 PM, Sunday, FOX
When you assemble your team like the Rams do, you end up having a reserve quarterback like John Wolford. His security blanket would normally be Cooper Kupp, but he won’t be playing. If Rams wants to return to the playoffs, it is better to hope that Bears cannot find a way to defeat the Packers – which will not happen.
The choice: Cardinals
Football team in eagles
8:20 PM, Sunday, NBC
If it’s Alex Smith in downtown Washington and he’s healthy, I reserve the right to change my mind. Doug Pederson knows that there is pressure and I believe he is a coach who does not deserve to be fired. Because of his game, Jalen Hurts had a very interesting offseason arriving in Philadelphia. I think it continues on Sunday night, eliminating the Washington football team from the playoff contest.
The choice: Eagles
Cowboys at Giants
1 PM, Sunday, FOX
It’s Jason Garrett’s revenge game (post-COVID-19)! The Giants fell seven straight to the Cowboys, but this game is simple for me to choose. New York is home to the best defender, best defense and best coach. Make room for your new NFC East champions.
The choice: Giants
The rest
Ravens over Bengals
Browns on Steelers
Vikings about lions
Santos on Panthers
Buccaneers over Falcons
Titans on Texans
Colts on Jaguars
Chiefs over Chargers
Raiders over Broncos
Seahawks above 49ers
Packers over Bears