Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has not announced whether he will put his holders on the bench this week, but investors apparently expect him to rest several important moves in Week 17 because that is the only way to explain the difference in points in the Pittsburgh game against Cleveland.
In the opening odds for Week 17, the Browns opened as seven-point favorites, which is a huge number for Cleveland in this rivalry. This game will mark the first time since 1989 that the Browns are favorites with seven or more points against Pittsburgh. Thirty-one years ago, the Browns were 10 Steelers’ favorite points in a game they would lose 17-7.
If you’re wondering why the Steelers can leave several important players on the bench this week, it’s because they can’t win goodbye in the first round. With no chance of saying goodbye, Tomlin will likely be much more concerned with leaving his team at ease, especially since the Steelers were never really fired this year. The team’s farewell should have happened in Week 8, but it was changed due to the COVID situation involving the Titans in October.
The Steelers should also receive the mini-bye you receive after playing a game on Thursday, but they also lost after their Thanksgiving game against the Ravens was postponed until the following Wednesday. Basically, the Steelers haven’t had time off for almost 18 consecutive weeks and it won’t be surprising if Tomlin decides to rest some important players against Cleveland.
Besides the Steelers. there may be several teams that end up leaving players resting, which is why Week 17 is usually wild in the NFL. With that in mind, let’s go to the initial odds.
Starting NFL Odds Week 17
(All William Hill Sportsbook lines, unless otherwise noted)
Opening Line: TBA
The Bills will likely be very confident for this game because they are 6-1 straight in their last seven games against the Dolphins (4-3 ATS), a record that includes a 31-28 win in week 2, where dolphins were considered losers of 5.5 points. The Dolphins are actually the best 11-4 ATS of the NFL season and have also covered nine of the past 11 games. The Bills aren’t bad either, as they have covered six consecutive games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL, but that streak could end on Monday against New England. One thing to keep in mind in this game is that the Dolphins will reach the playoffs with a win. There is also a chance that Bills could give some beginners a break, as they no longer have a chance to win goodbye in the first round.
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Opening Line: Patriots -5
Betting against the Jets used to make money, but not recently. They have not only won two consecutive games, but are also 3-1 ATS in the last four. That said, they always seem to fight the Patriots. Since the start of the 2014 season, the Jets are 1-12 straight against New England, although they have gone 8-5 ATS in those games, which includes a loss of 30-27 Jets earlier this season, where New York has covered as a 9 point loser.
Opening Line: Packers -4
If there is one team that the Packers have absolutely owned in recent years, it is the Bears. In the last 20 meetings between these two teams, the Packers went straight 17-3 and 14-6 ATS. However, the Bears may not be a simple task in this game and that is because they are 6-2 both direct and ATS this season in games started by Mitchell Trubisky. Bears have a lot to play on Sunday and that is because a victory will guarantee their place in the playoff. Of course, the Packers will also have something to play for and that because a victory for them will guarantee the best seed in the NFC.
Opening Line: Vikings -6.5
If you’ve been betting on the Vikings for the past few weeks, it’s probably almost broken, because Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in its last six games (2-4 straight). If Vikings can end this streak against someone, it’s probably Lions. In their last six games against Detroit, the Vikings are 6-0 and ATS.
Ravens (10-5) in Bengals (4-10-1)
Opening Line: Ravens -11
If there is ever a time you want to bet on Bengals, it is during the last two weeks of the NFL season. For the past 10 years, Bengals has been an impressive 16-4-1 ATS when playing in Week 16 or Week 17 and that includes Sunday’s victory over Houston, where Bengals won directly as a seven-point underdog. (Bengals are 13-8 straight in those 21 games). Although the Ravens have won four consecutive games in this series, the Bengals are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games against Baltimore. The last time the Bengals was a double-digit underdog was in Week 15, when they defeated the Steelers in a game in which Pittsburgh was favored by 14.5. As for the Ravens, they covered in five consecutive games.
Steelers (12-3) at Browns (10-5)
Opening Line: Browns -7
If you are looking for a one-sided rivalry in the NFL, it definitely qualifies. The Browns are not only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games this season, but are also 2-12-1 straight in their last 15 games against the Steelers. However, they are 2-1 straight and ATS in the last three games, where they were favorites against Pittsburgh. If the difference in points remains, it will only be the sixth time under Mike Tomlin that the Steelers have been unlucky in a touchdown or more. In the previous five games, they were 1-4 straight and 2-2-1 ATS.
Opening Line: Colts -13.5
With the Colts needing a victory to keep their playoffs alive, this may seem like an obvious place to bet on Indy, but it may not be the case, because the Jaguars had their number. In the last 10 games between these two teams, the Jaguars were 7-3 straight and 8-1-1 ATS, which includes a game in Week 1, where the Jags beat the Colts in their only win of the season (The Colts were favored seven in that game). Jaguars already won first choice in the draft, so they can really try to win this game.
Titans (10-5) in Texans (4-11)
Opening Line: Titans -7.5
The Titans are 4-2 straight and ATS in their last six games against the Texans and that includes a game earlier this season in which Tennessee was the favorite by four points in a 42-36 win in overtime. The Titans will be in a position on Sunday, where a victory will win AFC South. On the other hand, Texans will have nothing to play for, and when they have nothing to play for, they seem to fight. Texans have not only lost four consecutive matches, but also have 1-3 ATS in those games.
Opening Line: TBA
Betting on the Chiefs’ coverage when they are playing against an AFC West team has been one of the easiest ways to make money over the past five years. Since November 2015, the Chiefs have been 31-3 against divisional opponents and 22-11-1 ATS. That total includes 12-1 straight and 9-4-1 ATS against the Chargers in the last 13 times that these two teams have played. Of course, this may be the only time you don’t want to bet on the Bosses and that’s because there is a chance that they will end up resting their beginners. The Chiefs guaranteed goodbye in the first round, which means they have nothing to play for this week. Even if they had something to play for, they might not be a smart bet and that’s because the Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
Opening Line: Cowboys -1
There is a lot at stake in this game and that is because the winner may end up as NFC East champion, but only if Washington loses to the Eagles. The Cowboys are probably very excited to play against the Giants and that is because Dallas has won seven consecutive games in this series, going 6-1 ATS in those games. The Cowboys have also won three in a row overall and are 5-2 ATS above their last seven games, which is a crazy number when you consider that they started the 0-8 ATS season. As for the Giants, they are not only 0-3 both straight-up and ATS in the last three games, but they have also averaged just 8.7 points in those games.
Washington (6-9) in the Eagles (4-10-1)
Opening Line: Eagles -1
The football team may have lost in week 16, but it still controls its fate in the playoffs. If Washington wins in Week 17, it will take home the NFC East title. Despite Sunday’s loss to Carolina, Washington is still 5-1 ATS in their last six games (4-2 straight). As for the Eagles, although they have nothing to play for, they have dominated Washington in recent years. The Eagles are winning 6-1 and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against Washington, but the Football Team’s only victory during that period came this year.
Opening Line: Buccaneers -4.5
Falcons are usually a team you want to avoid betting on during the last week of the season, mainly because they won four consecutive games in week 17. The Falcons also covered two consecutive games against Tampa, including a week 15 game that the buccaneers won. Before thinking about betting on this game, you will want to find out if Tampa Bay is playing its first steps. The Buccaneers have already won a spot on the wild card and cannot win the division, which means it won’t be a surprise if Bruce Arians sits down with some players on Sunday.
Opening Line: Santos -4
Due to the Packers’ victory on Sunday, it will be a remote chance for the Saints to win goodbye in the first round, which means that there is definitely a chance that Sean Payton will end up leaving some important players for this game. With that in mind, it could make Carolina the smartest bet here. The Panthers are not only 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Saints, but are also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall, which includes a definite underdog win for Washington in Week 16.
Opening Line: Broncos -1
The last five weeks of the season were a total disaster for the Raiders. Since Week 11, Raiders have been 1-4 both direct and ATS. If the Raiders want to end their season on a high, it is probably a good thing that they are playing against the Broncos, because the Raiders have covered six consecutive games against Denver (direct 4-2).
Opening Line: TBA
This game is simple for the Cardinals: if they win, they are in the playoffs. On the other hand, if they lose, they are out. Of course, winning this game will not be easy for the Cardinals and that is because they will be playing against a Rams team that totally dominated them. Since Sean McVay was signed in 2017, the Rams have been 7-0 in a row and 6-0-1 ATS against Arizona. One thing to keep an eye on here is the health of Jared Goff, who reportedly broke his thumb on Sunday. If Goff couldn’t make it, the Rams’ starting quarterback would likely be John Wolford, who never gave an NFL pass. The Rams will reach the playoffs with a win and will also be able to guarantee a post-season spot with a loss, but only if Bears also lose to the Packers.
Seahawks (11-4) at 49ers (6-9) in Arizona
Opening Line: Seahawks -3.5
The Seahawks still have a chance to make it to the top of the NFC, but just because they have something to play for doesn’t mean you should bet on them, especially since the game is on the road. The Seahawks have 0-5 ATS in their last five road games, which is the second longest uncooked steak for NFL road teams (the Eagles have a six game streak). That said, this is not necessarily a real road game as it is being played in Arizona. With that in mind, there’s a lot to like about the Seahawks at this location, like the fact that they’re 11-2 straight in their last 13 games against San Francisco and 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games against the 49ers.