In Wuhan, almost half a million people may have had Covid-19, the study shows. That’s almost 10 times the official number

In Wuhan, almost half a million people may have had Covid-19, the study shows. That’s almost 10 times the official number

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The study used a sample of 34,000 people in the general population in Wuhan – the original epicenter of the pandemic – and other cities in Hubei province, as well as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong, Jiangsu, Sichuan and Liaoning provinces to estimate infection rates from Covid-19.

The researchers found an antibody prevalence rate of 4.43% for Covid-19 among residents of Wuhan, a metropolis of 11 million people. As of Sunday, Wuhan had reported a total of 50,354 confirmed cases of Covid-19, according to the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission.

The study aimed to estimate the scale of previous infections in a population by testing blood samples from a group of people for antibodies to the coronavirus. Their findings are not considered final statistics on how many people in a given area have been exposed to the virus.

The Chinese CDC said the study was carried out a month after China “contained the first wave of the Covid-19 epidemic”. The prevalence rate outside Wuhan is significantly lower, the study showed. In other cities in Hubei, only 0.44% of the surveyed residents had antibodies to the coronavirus.

Outside the province, antibodies were detected only in two people among the more than 12,000 residents surveyed.

The results of the study were revealed in a Chinese CDC post on social media on Monday. He did not mention whether the study was published in academic journals.

Underreported coronavirus infections

Yanzhong Huang, senior global health researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the study points to a problem of underreporting infections during the height of the outbreak in Wuhan, partly due to chaos at the time and the failure to include asymptomatic cases in the count. official of confirmed cases.

In January and February, patients with fever flooded Wuhan hospitals, which lacked manpower, test kits and medical resources to diagnose and treat them. Instead, many were told to go home and isolate themselves – some ended up infecting other family members, while others died at home without being recorded in Covid-19’s death toll.

Underreporting is a problem faced by health authorities in many countries, often due to a lack of capacity and resources. Antibody studies conducted by researchers in other parts of the world also show that coronavirus was much more prevalent than official figures suggest.

A study sponsored by the New York State Department of Health, for example, showed that by the end of March, one in seven New York adults had Covid-19 – about 10 times more than the official account. In August, another study found antibodies to the coronavirus in more than 27% of the 1.5 million New York City residents tested.
Wuhan's archives: leaked documents reveal China's mishandling in the early stages of Covid-19

But in China there is also the issue of transparency, as the authorities have given the public more optimistic data than what they had access to internally.

Since February 12, Hubei health officials have started to include “clinically diagnosed cases” in the count of confirmed infections. That day, some 13,000 previously diagnosed “clinically diagnosed cases” in the province were added to new confirmed infections, resulting in a nine-fold increase in daily cases over the previous day.
Leaked documents from the Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention submitted previously to CNN by a whistleblower showed before that day, authorities reported “clinically diagnosed cases” internally, but did not reveal them to the public. Hubei officials also publicly reported a lower count of confirmed cases and deaths on February 10 and March 7 than they recorded internally, the documents showed.
The authorities also cracked down on citizen journalists who reported the harsh reality of hospitals overflowing in Wuhan. On Monday, Zhang Zhan, a former lawyer who documented the peak outbreak in Wuhan, was sentenced to four years in prison for “fighting and causing problems”. Two other independent journalists – Li Zehua and Fang Bin – were also detained after coverage of the outbreak.

Effective containment in Wuhan

The study highlights a stark contrast between the prevalence rates of antibodies against coronavirus inside and outside Wuhan.

Huang said that significantly lower rates in other Chinese cities suggest that “Chinese containment efforts have indeed been quick and effective, especially compared to cities like New York.”

In an unprecedented attempt to contain the rapidly spreading virus, Wuhan was isolated from the outside world on January 23, with all flights, trains and buses canceled and road entrances blocked.

Within the city, the government imposed a draconian blockade. For more than two months, public transport in Wuhan has been suspended, businesses closed and millions of residents confined to their homes and residential communities – without even permission to go shopping.
Blockages are being imposed worldwide. China's example highlights costs
However, the 76-day blockade came at a huge cost to residents, especially those who needed to go to the hospital, as all public transport was suspended and taxis were not available for patients.

However, comprehensive measures were announced by the Chinese government as allowing the country to turn the corner in its fight against the outbreak.

The Chinese CDC, meanwhile, also highlighted China’s victory in containing the virus when it released the results of the antibody study on Monday.

“The results of the study show that the population of our country has a low rate of infection. This indicates that China has managed to control the epidemic with Wuhan as the main battleground and has effectively controlled the large-scale spread of the epidemic,” said the agency.

Nick Paton Walsh of CNN contributed to this story.

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