While southern California remains in crisis because of the growing cases of coronaviruses that have brought hospitals to the breaking point, the San Francisco Bay area is beginning to show signs of improvement.
In San Francisco, about 100 intensive care unit beds are available for a city with less than 900,000 residents, while LA County has about half of the ICU beds available for a county of more than 10 million people.
Following the order of stay at home that went into effect on December 6, San Francisco authorities estimate that they prevented more than 500 deaths during the spring and prevented even more people from needing hospitalization.
“See what it did to our numbers, a decline from an estimated 1,200 fewer hospitalizations … and more than 500 deaths avoided,” said Dr. Grant Colfax, director of public health in San Francisco. “Now, we need to continue to make that progress continue.”
Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley remain in California’s red COVID-19 zone, with 0% of ICU beds available. But in the San Francisco Bay area, officials believe the restrictions have stabilized the remaining supply of available ICU capacity in the region, which has fluctuated around 10%. The Greater Sacramento area is even better, with a stable ICU capacity at 19%.
San Francisco is also doing better compared to its other Bay Area neighbors, with the city having the second lowest case count in the region, “thanks to our dedication to staying at home,” said Colfax.
San Francisco has already reduced the effective reproductive rate of the coronavirus. On December 5, all people infected with the coronavirus in San Francisco transmitted the virus on average to 1.45 others, but by Saturday, that number had dropped to 1.13. If that number drops below 1, it means that the prevalence of the virus will begin to decline across the city.
“As we reduce the reproductive rate, we see fewer sick people, requiring fewer ICU beds and fewer people dying,” said Colfax. “By staying at home and not meeting, we were able to avoid hundreds of hospitalizations and save many lives.”
On a per capita basis, the bay area has less than half of coronavirus cases per 100,000 Southern California residents. For the most recent seven-day period available, the Bay Area reported about 386 new cases of coronavirus per 100,000 residents, while Southern California had 838 new cases of coronavirus per 100,000 residents.
“We are still far from being in danger,” said Colfax. “We still have more cases – many more cases – per day than in the two previous outbreaks. And we also have to wait until January to see the general impacts of these crucial holiday weeks, when people are likely to gather. “
“As we move forward to New Year’s Eve, let’s remember that the power is in our hands to continue to reverse the wave,” said Colfax. “Families in San Francisco will have a chance to spend the next New Year’s Eve together in good health because of the choices we make this week. … Please wait until the New Year 2022 for your traditional New Year celebration. ”
One of his advice: “Don’t meet with people outside your home. Do not travel. Keep your distance and cover your face with a mask when and if you have to leave, ”said Colfax.
San Francisco is also requiring people who have traveled outside the bay area to be quarantined for 10 days after their return or arrival in the city, to monitor themselves for signs of illness.