Notable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicted significant improvements in two of the iPhone’s three lenses in 2021 and 2022, respectively. However, a new report suggests that we will not see any corresponding improvement in the main lenses.
Kuo’s previous reports say that we can expect notable improvements for ultra-wide lenses this year and an even more dramatic increase for telephoto lenses next year …
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A previous Kuo note said that we can expect three improvements in ultra-wide lenses this year.
First, he expects the aperture to be expanded from f / 2.4 to f / 1.8. All other things being equal, this would let in more than twice as much light, significantly improving low light performance. In particular, it should allow for sharper and cleaner night shots.
Second, the sources indicate that the number of elements in the lens will increase from five to six. There are pros and cons to adding elements to a lens, but when a manufacturer takes an existing lens design and adds elements, it is often done to reduce distortion, which is especially important with wide-angle lenses.
Finally, he expects the ultra-wide-angle lens to autofocus for the first time. The current ultra-wide-angle lens is fixed-focus. This may seem surprising, but it is generally not a big problem with very wide-angle lenses, as they are used mainly for landscapes and urban landscapes, where everything in the shoot is far enough to be in focus. However, switching to autofocus will be useful for pictures closer to wide angle.
A separate report predicted a much more dramatic shift in telephoto lenses in 2022 – creating the possibility of up to 10x optical zoom on telephoto lenses. We explained earlier how the design of a periscope lens can dramatically increase the optical zoom.
You may not be familiar with periscopes, unless you are a submarine fan or old enough to have one as a childhood toy. Basically, it is a tube with two 45 degree lenses mounted on each end. You look at one end and you can see a reflected image from the other end.
A periscope lens uses the same principle, but with only a single mirror, to bend light 90 degrees.
This allows for greater optical zoom. How much optical zoom is an open question [but] Samsung’s Galaxy S20 Ultra uses a periscope lens to provide a 10x optical zoom, which is clearly practical on a modern smartphone.
Today’s iPhone lens report
His latest report focuses on likely battles between competing Apple vendors, but includes some product references.
First, he says that the 2021 lens will be a ‘7P’. This is the industry language for a lens with seven plastic elements, which is the same main lens as the iPhone 12. Secondly, it specifically says that we should not expect any significant lens updates between the 2021 and 2022 models.
In our previous report, we presented the non-consensual forecast that Sunny Optical will ship iPhone 7P lenses in 2021 […] We anticipate […] no significant update of the iPhone lens in 2022.
Some are interpreting this as an absence of improvement for any of the lenses on iPhones 2021 and 2022, but I believe it is a wrong reading. Kuo has a history of reference to his previous predictions when new information comes to light, so the fact that he doesn’t go back on any of the previous ones leads me to conclude that today’s note refers only to primary lenses.
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