On the roller coaster ride that is the COVID case tracking, we just experienced a stimulating free fall. The numbers plunged from a historic record in January, signaling the hope needed for our country’s recovery. But experts warn that the number of cases is now stagnant and even increasing as states begin to loosen restrictions and reopen. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there is a way to predict which areas will experience a sudden increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths. If restaurants are opening near you, the CDC warns, you can expect COVID numbers to increase. Read on to learn about the CDC warning and for more information on the path of the pandemic. That’s when we can expect the next increase in COVID, experts say.
A CDC study released on March 5 reviewed two community security measures that appeared to impact COVID case rates over time: mask orders and restaurant reopening. The report’s authors found that both had a statistically significant impact on the spread of the community. “Allowing meals at on-site restaurants was associated with an increase in the growth rates of daily COVID-19 cases 41-100 days after implementation and an increase in the growth rates of daily mortality 61-100 days after implementation,” reported the health authority.
Over the study period, restaurants were allowed to reopen for on-site dining in 3,076 (97.9 percent) of U.S. counties, the report says. The researchers found that on-site dining – which included indoor and outdoor accommodation by the CDC definition – was associated with an increase of 2.2 percentage points in deaths between 61-80 days after reopening, and an increase of 3.0 percentage points in deaths between 81-100 days after reopening.
Although the CDC noted that the increase in cases and deaths became statistically significant after 41 days and not before, the researchers noted that there may be several explanations that still support the case for caution.
Addressing the first few weeks after easing restrictions, they wrote: “Although the ban on dining at local restaurants has been lifted, restaurants have not been forced to open and may have postponed the reopening. In addition, potential restaurant customers may have been more cautious when restaurants initially reopened for on-site dining, but they may have been more likely to dine at restaurants over time. More analysis is needed to assess the late increase in the rates of growth of cases and deaths, ”reported the CDC.
Regardless, it is safe to say that what we do in the coming weeks and months can determine our trajectory for counting cases. “We are at a critical juncture in the pandemic”, director of the CDC Rochelle Walensky, MD, said THE Wall Street Journal on March 5, noting that the country’s seven-day average has increased. So for those of us who prefer the momentum of freefall to scary climbing, it could mean a few more weeks – or months – of take-out food before finally gracing a restaurant in person. Read on to find out more about Walensky’s ideas, and if you’re looking forward to getting things back to normal, that’s when the COVID pandemic will be completely over, experts say.
“I think the next two or three months can go in one of two directions,” said Walensky to the NPR host, Ari Shapiro, in a March 3 interview. “If things open up, if we are not really cautious, we could end a sudden increase after spring break in the same way that we saw an increase after Christmas. We could see a lot more disease. We could see a lot more deaths.”
Walensky also offered an “alternative view” that we now strive for a big reward for in the summer. “[If] we really waited a few more months, vaccinated so many people and arrived at a really great place in the summer, “she said. And for the latest news from COVID delivered straight to your inbox, sign up for our daily newsletter.
Of course, Walensky’s most optimistic projection is only achievable if there is widespread acceptance, and several states have recently announced massive reopenings – including the return to full-capacity meals – which could thwart the progress she envisions.
“The CDC openly recommends routine masking, routine social detachment now, right when we are in this nexus, in this critical moment, at this tenuous point. So, it does not directly fit the orientation that we are recommending,” said Walensky, referring up to those ads. And for one rule, the CDC says that cThe relax, CDC is about to announce this important change in the COVID guidelines.
Walensky warned that pandemic fatigue during this crucial period can easily contribute to the increase in new cases. “We are all exhausted,” she acknowledged.
That is exactly why it is now such an essential time to reduce precautions: avoid the temptation of large meetings, dinners on the spot and the desire to go without masks. “What worries me most is that we are really stabilizing now, hovering around 60,000 to 70,000 cases a day, and that is a lot of cases to try to end this pandemic,” Walensky told NPR.
However, with caution, Walensky expressed optimism when asked about the vaccine’s launch, referring to it as the “light at the end of the tunnel”.
“I think the offer will increase more and more in the coming weeks. I think the end of March looks better, the end of April looks even better than that,” said Walensky. “So I think we are really talking in the range of four to eight weeks, where we are really going to start seeing a real increase in supply,” she added. And if you are looking for crucial vaccine news, Dr. Fauci has just confirmed that you can do this after being vaccinated.