Scientists in Iceland said there are now “strong signs” that a volcanic eruption may be occurring after several days of almost constant seismic activity near Mount Keilir, some 20 miles south of the capital, Reykjavik.
“We are not saying that we have signs that an eruption has started,” Kristín Jónsdóttir, from the Icelandic meteorological office, told local media on Wednesday. “But this looks like the kind of activity we expect in the run-up to an eruption.”
Víðir Reynisson, of the island’s civil defense force, said at a mid-afternoon press conference that it was “more likely than not” that an eruption – the first in the area since the 12th century – was about to begin and could happen in the the next few hours.
But Víðir said that “no disaster is happening and everyone can continue with their daily lives”. There was no immediate danger, he said, although people should avoid traveling to the Reykjanes peninsula area.
Thousands of tremors measuring up to 5 on the Richter scale have been recorded on the peninsula over the past week. Freysteinn Sigmundsson, a geophysicist, said that, if it happened, the eruption could also delay several days.
If the magma reaches the surface, Freysteinn said, it is unlikely to be in the form of an explosion of lava and ash shooting into the sky, but rather what is known as a crack eruption, in which the lava emerges more slowly from a crack. on the Earth’s surface.
This means that chaos is unlikely to repeat in 2010, when the six-day explosive eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano further south caused a major disruption to international air travel, affecting up to 10 million travelers.
“This event is completely different from Eyjafjallajökull,” said Freysteinn. “It is very unlikely that this will hinder air transport,” he said. “This is likely to be a lava eruption with little explosive activity.”
Any lava flow near Mount Keilir is unlikely to reach populated areas, experts said, but it could disrupt air traffic to and from Keflavík International Airport, which is about 12 miles from the main seismic activity area and is in orange alert.
There is also a chance that road access to the airport will be interrupted by lava flows, leading authorities to draw up contingency plans to divert flights and passengers to other airports on the island.