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Getty Images. In the photo: Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees
Drew Brees was rusty on his return after breaking 11 ribs a month ago.
The Saints fell into a 0-14 hole against the Chiefs last week, but managed to come back and lose just 32-29. We shouldn’t underestimate Brees’s motivation for what could be his last season – he was probably at the greatest risk of hurting his ribs again against the Chiefs, but that risk should decrease significantly as we go along.
In his favor in this confrontation is the fact that the Vikings generate the sixth lowest pressure rate in the NFL, so Brees should feel much more comfortable in the pocket against Minnesota than against Kansas City.
I have the Saints projected as favorites of 7.5 points and I am interested in supporting them now that the market has lowered them to -6.5, exposing the key number of 7 (buy lines in real time here).
A key factor is the absence of Eric Kendricks, who has the second best score (82.6) among the linebackers according to Pro Football Focus and whose absence will only increase the prospects of Brees and Alvin Kamara.
Week 16 means that we must also take motivation into account: the Saints are trying to stop the NFC South while the Vikings need to win to avoid eliminating the dispute for the final NFC wild card slot.
With Kendricks out and FanDuel still offering the Saints at -6.5, I’m arresting them right away.