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| Kentucky Odds | +4 [BET NOW] |
| Louisville Odds | -4 [BET NOW] |
| Money line | +155 / -186 [BET NOW] |
| Up down | 132 [BET NOW] |
| Time | Saturday, 1:00 pm Eastern Time |
| TV | ESPN |
The battle for supremacy in Bluegrass State begins on Saturday, when Kentucky faces Louisville.
For John Calipari, this is one of his worst games as a head coach. The Wildcats are seated 1-5 and look lost on the offensive side of the track.
Kentucky entered the season as the pre-season favorite to beat the SEC, but after the start, it feels more like a dream. Could this end the slippage against another fight program on Saturday?
Chris Mack’s second season in charge was headed for a potential ACC title and a No. 1 seed in the tournament, before the Cardinals lost four of their last seven ACC games. Mack lost all of the top five last year, so he will have to rely on a lot of freshmen and transfers this season.
In addition to being blown up by Wisconsin in Madison, Louisville took care of business. Can cardinals do this again against their rival in the state?
Kentucky Wildcats
Not surprising, given Kentucky’s legacy, but Calipari has another impressive freshman class. However, the Wildcats were left with no more than 90% of their 2019-20 score, so they need to get the most out of this new group.
It all starts with a stellar defense court made up of freshmen Brandon Boston Jr. and Terrence Clarke. To take it a step further, Kentucky also secured a major transfer in Olivier Sarr from Wake Forest.
Boston and Clarke lead the team with 14.5 and 12.5 points per game, respectively, and Sarr is third in the team with 10.5.
Despite the positive points they saw from the newcomers, the Wildcats enter Saturday’s game with just 1-5.
Kentucky has recently struggled to produce in the attack, coming in at 251º in the effective percentage of field goal and 318º in the percentage of 3 points. In fact, none of the Wildcats’ top four scorers pitch better than 30% depth.
As was the case in previous seasons, the Wildcats can win most of their games this season based on talent, despite their inexperience. But if they keep shooting so badly, they will have to fight to turn the season around.
For Kentucky to win on Saturday, it will have to come to the defensive end of the court, because its attack is unreliable now.
Louisville Cardinals
Replacing the entire five starting lineups for a team is always difficult, and that was clear to Chris Mack in Louisville’s defeat to Wisconsin.
What hasn’t made things easy for Mack is that his best player last year, Malik Williams, will be out for 12 weeks. To combat the loss of his five holders, Mack brought big transfers to current Big South Player of the Year, Carlik Jones of Radford and Charles Minlend of San Francisco. However, Minlend has yet to play for the Cardinals and is out until the new year.
So far, Louisville has been slightly above average on both sides of the ball, ranking in the top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. A big change on the offensive side of the field is that Louisville is no longer a good 3-point pitch team. Last season, it had the 15th best percentage of 3 points in the country, while 33.3% of the points came from behind the arc.
This season, he is shooting only 32.7% of 3 and has only 22% of his points coming from the bottom.
The defense is designed to be as good as last year, ranking in the top 30 in defensive efficiency. He fought Wisconsin, allowing 1.30 points for possession, but on the other hand has been solid against smaller opponents.
Analysis and choice of bets
I think this line is a little overblown for Kentucky’s poor start – especially with Louisville not being in full swing with Minlend and Williams on the wings.
Kentucky has an incredible amount of talent, so if Calipari can get everyone on the same page, Wildcats should be able to stand a good chance of winning at the KFC Yum Center.
I have Louisville projected as just -2.44 favorites, so I think there is some value in Kentucky at +4.5 or better.
To choose: Kentucky +4.5 or better.