In short: when Biden takes office on Wednesday, we may not yet know some of the basic principles of how Capitol will function during its first two years. There is still no organizational resolution that establishes the rules that will govern the Senate 50-50 over the next two years. We do not yet have an official word on when there will be an impeachment trial, and the struggle to accelerate Biden’s nominees has begun.
Overview: a normal pace won’t happen anytime soon. Sources have repeatedly told CNN that the next few days and weeks will test both parties and the institutions they live in. The struggles for the constitutionality of a former president’s impeachment are already beginning. Biden’s nominees who walk slowly are already underway. And in addition to the daily task of governing, each party is accounting for its future. Republicans must recalibrate and decide what their party stands for in Trump’s wake. Democrats – now finally in power – must decide how hard they want to push the agenda from their base while being governed by a president who has always valued compromise.
In a matter of hours, the US Senate will change hands. After Biden takes office at 12 pm Eastern time, three new US Democratic senators will take office at 4:30 pm, officially cementing a change of power in the House. There is no major vote or ceremonial change of the guard. Senator Chuck Schumer of New York will become the majority leader. Sen. Pat Leahy, a Democrat from Vermont, will become President Pro Tempore.
Biden nominees face hard work in the Senate
Appointments will not necessarily be easy. Missouri Republican Senator Josh Hawley made clear on Tuesday that he would delay the appointment of Biden’s home secretary, Alejandro Mayorkas, a potential sign that Biden’s fight for his security-related nominations will be arduous. In his statement, Hawley said his reason was because Mayorkas had not “adequately explained how he will apply federal law and protect the southern border, given President-elect Biden’s promise to reverse major security and surveillance measures.”
So far, no other senator has come out publicly saying that he will hinder Biden’s nominees at other top agencies like Defense, Treasury, State or Director of National Intelligence. The tone and tenor of the appointment hearings on Thursday made it clear that appointments are likely to occur more quickly. But we still don’t have an official word that any of these nominations are changing on Wednesday.
On Thursday, the House will vote to waive Lloyd Austin’s appointment as defense secretary, a process that will only add a day or two to his potential confirmation. Hawley’s decision underscores the reality that any member can disrupt – or at least delay – Biden’s agenda and, with a handful of Republican senators training to run for president in 2024, hopes that those moments will come from time to time.
The organizing resolution
Schumer and the current Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, met on Tuesday to settle the next Senate’s organizational resolution. Schumer offered McConnell a resolution that looked almost identical to that of 2001 between Republican Trent Lott and Democrat Tom Daschle who divided committee members and budgets, established a protocol for how to get things out of the committee when they were arrested due to a draw and allowed members of both parties to preside over the chamber.
McConnell wants to cement another change: the promise to maintain legislative obstruction. In practice, the obstructionist goes nowhere with or without the organization’s resolve. With a narrow majority, Schumer would have to have all its members and Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the link to “become nuclear”. We know from comments by moderates like Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat from West Virginia who opposes the eradication of the obstruction, that Schumer would have no votes for that.
Still, it is a strategic move on the part of McConnell and a way of enshrining the rights of minorities. Putting him in the organization’s resolution would also put Schumer in a difficult position with his base. This would set a precedent for future organizational resolutions and make it more difficult for Democrats to break the 60-vote limit on legislation. As with all of these negotiations, remember that the team is still working on it. Just because McConnell and Schumer do not sit in a room to discuss this does not mean that negotiations are not in progress.
Impeachment
The timetable for a trial has not materialized since the House voted a week ago to impeach Trump a second time. On Wednesday, Democrats want to make this moment about Joe Biden. Don’t expect any announcements. Advisers and members we are talking to have made it clear that nothing about the timing of an impeachment trial should be settled until Schumer and McConnell draft their organizational resolution. And Democrats would also like to ensure that at least some of Biden’s nominees are confirmed before they lock themselves into a static schedule that comes with the pitfalls of a trial.
Ultimately, this is still the decision of mayor Nancy Pelosi, but if anyone understands a political moment, it is she. The extent to which members and advisers tell me that they do not know what is next is extraordinary for a city where people like to speak. The effort was clearly made to make this day and week about Biden and not about the impeachment of the last president.
What complicates the timing of a trial is the fact that Republicans are sending signals that they are unlikely to agree to allow Biden to speed up nominees in the morning, before a Senate trial begins every day at 12pm. Sen. John Cornyn, a Texas Republican and a member of the leadership, told reporters on Tuesday that double tracking of the day “will not be possible.”
“Nancy Pelosi’s choice because, once she submits the impeachment article, it replaces all other matters,” said Cornyn. “If she wants to delay confirmation of President Biden’s nominees for cabinet positions and prevent President Biden from asking for and receiving additional relief from Covid-19, that would be one way to do that, so they have a big decision to make.”
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