If they could, most NBA coaches would simply play with their best players for 48 minutes per game, every game. After all, it is the stars that largely drive team performance, and most teams are at their best when their best players are on the ground.
Of course, we know that this cannot happen. The science of minute management is very clear, and most teams are aware of it. For proof, just look at the rapid decline in the past decade and a half in the number of players who receive more than 36 minutes a night. This used to be quite normal for the best and even the second best player on a team; nowadays, it is extremely rare.
Players who spend less time on the ground necessarily mean that their teams will have to do without them more often. See LeBron James, for example. During the 2004-05 season, James averaged 42.4 minutes per game, the league’s maximum, so his Cleveland Cavaliers had to deal with only about six minutes less than LeBron per night. Moving forward 16 years, the 2020-21 version of James averages “just” 34.7 minutes per night. Therefore, the Lakers need to figure out what to do without LeBron on the ground for just under 14 minutes per game.
Considering that the Lakers’ net rating drops from over-9.9 with James on the ground to minus 4.0 with him out, according to the NBA’s advanced statistics, this is a very significant problem. The same is true for the fact that LA’s net rating drops from plus-9.1 to plus-3.0 when James’s co-star, Anthony Davis, leaves the room. Davis played an average of 32.8 minutes per game, which means that the Lakers also have to deal with about 15 minutes less Davis per night – at least until his recent injury. At least in the coming weeks, they will have to deal without it for all 48.
To avoid overlapping minutes without James and minutes without Davis, Lakers coach Frank Vogel likes to scale his two stars in rotation, as we saw when looking at rotation patterns in the first 29 games of the 2020-21 season. LeBron and AD usually start together, so LeBron leaves around the middle of the first quarter while Davis remains in the game. LeBron then heads towards the end of the first, while Davis leaves. Then, Davis enters again and James leaves again; and finally, they synchronize again in the final minutes of the second half. Then they do the same music and dance after the break.
Because of this variation, the Lakers are able to minimize the number of minutes they play with James and Davis off the ground. In games, the two dressed for pbpstats.com, they were on the bench together for just 7.8 percent of the Lakers’ minutes, with most of them coming in the fourth game period that were already underway.
LeBron and AD don’t usually stay in the bank together
Court minutes and net standings for Los Angeles Lakers lineup combinations involving LeBron James and Anthony Davis, season 2020-21
| Minutes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| On | Off | Total | Share | Net valuation |
| Both | None | 517 | 46.4% | +14.21 |
| James | Davis | 272 | 24.4 | +5.06 |
| Davis | James | 238 | 21.4 | -0.93 |
| None | Both | 87 | 7.8 | +1.06 |
The Lakers’ Staples Center brothers, the Clippers, take the same approach with their two stars, preferring to minimize the time they spend with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on the bench. There is good reason for them to do this: the Clippers were outperformed by 1.59 points per 100 possessions with both stars on the sideline, while they dominated opponents with both players in the game and outperformed them with at least one of the two in the game. floor.
Clippers maximize time with their stars
Minutes on the court and net rating for the Los Angeles Clippers lineup combinations involving Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, season 2020-21
| Minutes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| On | Off | Total | Share | Net valuation |
| Both | None | 474 | 49.4% | +18.57 |
| Leonard | George | 217 | 22.6 | +3.94 |
| George | Leonard | 212 | 22.1 | +3.64 |
| None | Both | 57 | 5.9 | -1.59 |
Of course, staggering is not the only way to go. Some teams prefer to put their stars in the rotation, maximizing the amount of time they spend together on the floor – even if it means that the team has to play with both of them on the bench more often than ideally. There is perhaps no better example of this than at the Golden State.
The Warriors put Stephen Curry and Draymond Green on the rotation for years – through many of their team’s iterations. When both are healthy, it is extremely rare to see one on the floor without the other.
The Denver Nuggets approach things the same way, largely putting Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray in the rotation. So great is the chemistry between your two stars that it makes sense that they spend most of their time together. The setup with the two players on the pitch together is also the only one that has outperformed their opponents so far this season, although the scoring margins of the other units have been affected by Denver’s recent wave of support player injuries.
Nuggets keep their stars together
Court minutes and net standings for Denver Nuggets lineup combinations involving Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray, season 2020-21
| Minutes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| On | Off | Total | Share | Net valuation |
| Both | None | 811 | 59.2% | +9.85 |
| Jokić | Murray | 185 | 13.5 | -5.34 |
| Murray | Jokić | 171 | 12.5 | -2.81 |
| None | Both | 202 | 14.8 | -2.59 |
Of course, building a rotation gets a little more complicated if your team has more than two key players. With three pillars of rotation, a coach has more options. Totally matching the minutes of three players seems a little silly. If you can spend between most and the whole game with at least one of your top three guys on the floor, why wouldn’t you? Still, coaches can take different paths to get there.
Milwaukee Bucks, for example, employs something like a three-man stagger between Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, each averaging between 32.5 and 33.8 minutes a night. Antetokounmpo usually comes out in the middle of the first and third quarters, leaving Middleton and Holiday on the floor. It also usually starts the second and sometimes the fourth quarter alongside bench units. Meanwhile, coach Mike Budenholzer seems to mix and match which of Holiday and Middleton returns to play alongside Giannis for a few minutes before the other returns. Fortunately, all of the units’ iterations outnumber their opponents, with the exception of the one with the three stars on the bench, which was rarely used outside the fourth game period that has already been decided.
Compare this strategy with that of Jazz, which combines with Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert, and confuse this duo with Donovan Mitchell. Conley and Gobert get off the ground in the middle of the first, while Mitchell remains. A few minutes later, they switch, with Mitchell having his first rest of the game. Mitchell then goes back to playing a few minutes without his guard and pivot, who join him on the floor to end the break. This process is usually repeated after the break and works extremely well for Jazz, which dominates Conley / Gobert’s minutes against the second units and does well when Mitchell has to play without any of them in the game. Utah can do this because it relies on each of the Favors of Joe Ingles, Jordan Clarkson and Derrick to make up for the slack in the rotation.
The Raptors take it a step further. Toronto seems to believe it has four main players, as Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby averages between 33.8 and 36.6 minutes per game.
Raptors coach Nick Nurse usually faces Lowry and Anunoby and staggers the pair with VanVleet and Siakam, who are also paired. He will also use different combinations of these four players from time to time, although he prefers to have at least two of them in the game almost always. It may be advisable for the nurse to mix it up a bit, because both Lowry / Anunoby units and Siakam / VanVleet units have negative net ratings so far this season.
Raptors juggle their top four players
Minutes on the court and net rating for Toronto Raptors lineup combinations involving Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby, season 2020-21
| Minutes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| On | Off | Total | Share | Net valuation |
| All | None | 262 | 41.9% | +4.01 |
| Lowry • OG | Siakam • FVV | 82 | 13.1 | -10.29 |
| Siakam • FVV | Lowry • OG | 73 | 11.7 | -21.05 |
| Siakam • FVV • OG | Lowry | 57 | 9.1 | -19.10 |
| Lowry • Siakam • FVV | OG | 30 | 4.8 | +13.96 |
| Lowry • Siakam | FVV • OG | 28 | 4.5 | +10.56 |
| Lowry • FVV • OG | Siakam | 20 | 3.2 | +29.62 |
| Lowry | Siakam • FVV • OG | 17 | 2.7 | -12.73 |
| FVV • OG | Lowry • Siakam | 15 | 2.4 | +40.00 |
| Lowry • Siakam • OG | FVV | 15 | 2.4 | -32.26 |
| FVV | Lowry • Siakam • OG | 13 | 2.1 | -25.00 |
Raptors still have a lot of time to change things if they want to. It will be fascinating to see if or how this rotation changes now that Anunoby has returned from the calf injury that prevented him from participating in 10 games, especially considering how Norman Powell did as a starter in his absence. Because, except for injury or some kind of lineup change (like a free agent change or subscription), these changes just don’t happen that often – at least not for star players.
Sometimes it takes years for coaches to convince players that a rotation must be changed, and sometimes even a new coach to implement that change. After all, players are creatures of habit, and that extends to the way they get in and out of the game. So, among other reasons, it is extremely important that coaches make these decisions correctly.
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