DENVER – Models for the approaching snow show everything from a few centimeters to several meters, but there is a reason why there are so many different predictions about the approaching storm, according to chief meteorologist Mike Nelson.
As of Tuesday night, the storm was about 1,600 kilometers away, reaching the west coast – it has to cross the Sierra Nevada, the Wasatch and the Colorado Rockies before it even reaches the Eastern Plains and impacts Denver area.
Many things can change in a few days, but we know that big changes are coming. We are going to have some snow in the next 24 hours and then the heavy snow comes over the weekend – and it could be one of the biggest snowstorms in years.
But predicting major storms is not simple.
We use computer models that are very complicated and work on a supercomputer. They simulate how storm systems will move across the United States and around the world.
This mathematical model takes all kinds of different layers in the atmosphere and divides them into small, tiny boxes and then tries to get it from one period of time to the next and then to the next and the next.
This is a way to find out how the storms are going to move.
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Now, to make it more interesting. There is not just one computer model. There are several different models.
There is a global forecasting model, there is a European model that works in Europe and North America, the Canadian model, the North American model and each of these computer models has a different set of physics, different equations, different assumptions about how the atmosphere will change and change over time.
So, you put the same data in four different models. Normally, we don’t get exactly the same output, so we arrive at a variety of snow quantities for a given storm.
Here’s basically what’s going to happen in the next few days.
At the end of Wednesday, we expect rains and snow showers in the west. On Thursday, it will be windy and dry in the southeast. As the storm begins to move across the Great Basin, passing Nevada and finally Utah, the snow increases.
When we got to Friday, the low has already fallen on the area of the four corners. For people who have been observing the weather in Colorado for a long time, those four low curves are the most interesting for a big heavy snow. That’s because it will wind through southeastern Colorado, pulling a ton of moisture into the Gulf of Mexico, swirling it over the highest terrain to the west – this slope revolving around the low pressure system. This concentrates heavy snows over the Front Range and Continental Divide.
Again, this storm is still hundreds of miles away. As he gets closer and closer, we will be able to identify him a little better.
But it looks like the San Juans managed to see a foot or two of snow. Northeastern Colorado could see up to a foot and rain in the southeast with very little or no snow. Further north and west, you could see 15 to 30 centimeters.
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For the Denver Front Range area, more than 60 centimeters of snow can be reserved for some areas, especially east of Continental Divide – parts of Clear Creek, Gilpin County, Boulder County and above in Larimer County can see 48 centimeters snow and locally, maybe a little more.
March is our biggest snow month of the year, and these big frontal blizzards are great for our water supply. It will certainly be a hassle on Friday, Saturday and Sunday night, but let’s get the humidity out because we really need it with the drought conditions we had.