LOS ANGELES – In Los Angeles County, an average of 10 people test positive for the coronavirus every minute. Every six minutes, someone dies from Covid-19, according to county public health data.
The surprising numbers come as California’s most populous county is rapidly approaching 1 million confirmed cases of coronavirus since the pandemic began last year.
According to county public health officials, more than 958,400 people in LA were infected with the virus and nearly 13,000 people died on Wednesday. The figures are equally worrying across the state. California has nearly 2.8 million confirmed cases of coronavirus and more than 31,000 deaths on Wednesday, according to the NBC News count. A more contagious variant of the virus has also been detected in the region.
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Epidemiologists and elected officials are faced with an uncomfortable question as the Los Angeles Covid-19 crisis turns to metastasis: How did Los Angeles become the center of the pandemic?
“LA is a very large and complex county with factors like overcrowding, poverty and a large essential workforce,” said Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, an epidemiologist at the University of California at San Francisco. “These things happened at a time of the pandemic when we also see a lot of tiredness and a decrease in adherence to the basic things that you have to do to stay safe, like wearing a mask.”
In many ways, Los Angeles was especially vulnerable to the crisis.
Pandemic fatigue set in as the coldest weather and the shortest days approached, making outdoor activities less inviting, even in a region known for its temperate climate. This, together with vacation travel, meetings and a large essential workforce, with many members living in crowded or dense houses, created a confluence of problems.
“At least the way this virus is spreading, you don’t have to have urban density like Hell’s Kitchen,” said Dr. George Rutherford, also an epidemiologist at the University of California at San Francisco. “Los Angeles has small family homes with many people. It is difficult to be a gardener working from home.”
The convergence of environmental factors continues to confuse public health officials, who have repeatedly warned that the next few weeks could be the worst of the pandemic, as the post-holiday increase continues.
On Monday, county public officials issued new recommendations for essential workers and people who perform essential tasks to wear masks inside their own homes to avoid infecting loved ones, especially those with high-risk factors.
“One of the most moving conversations that our healthcare professionals share is … when children apologize to parents and grandparents for bringing Covid into their homes, for making them sick,” Hilda Solis, chairman of the County Council of Supervisors from Los Angeles, said during a press conference on Tuesday. “These excuses are just a few of the last words that loved ones will hear when they die alone.”
According to county public health officials, the recent increase began in early November, shortly after private meetings were allowed, personal care services reopened, the Dodgers won the World Series and the Halloween weekend.
Less than a month later, the county was forced to reintroduce the restrictions enacted for the first time in the spring, including the end of outdoor dinners, limiting the number of people allowed into essential businesses and forbidding multiple families to gather, in or out of home. A modified order to stay at home was issued around Thanksgiving, but by that time cases were already increasing exponentially.
“After you get behind the eight ball, it’s hard to put the genie back in the bottle,” said Bibbins-Domingo. “This is the situation you don’t want to be in.”
However, this is the scenario that is occurring in much of southern California, where hospitals are still filled with patients with Covid-19. According to the director of public health for Los Angeles County, Dr. Barbara Ferrer, LA has seen a 1,000 percent increase in Covid-19 cases since November 1.
“Everyone should keep in mind that transmission rates in the community are so high that you risk being exposed every time you leave home,” she said at a news conference last week. “Suppose this deadly invisible virus is everywhere, looking for a willing host.”
But almost a year after the pandemic began, fatigue seems to be everywhere.
Confusing messages from elected leaders only worsened the feeling of fatigue, experts say, starting with the federal government’s early minimization of the coronavirus and reaching state and municipal levels, where opinions about what should remain open and what should remain closed can vary widely.
“The federal government has to recognize the messiness of the message and the resistance it generates,” said Rutherford.
Experts also point to the confusion and frustration stemming from strict home orders issued at the beginning of the pandemic, when California had relatively low cases of coronavirus. Unlike New York City, which closed after the cases skyrocketed, Los Angeles preemptively closed many businesses and limited outdoor activities before experiencing such an increase, causing some residents and local leaders to question the effectiveness of the restrictions.
“You have to think about the psychology behind it,” said Bibbins-Domingo. “When you first saw the devastation New York experienced, it is easier to implement stubborn public health strategies. It is a much more difficult thing to do 10 months when people are tired. “
Despite the deadly increase, protesters took to the streets this month, marching through grocery stores and malls, calling for the reopening of California’s economy and encouraging people to challenge the state’s mask mandate.
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Part of the resistance came in the wake of elected leaders who disrespected the very rules they sought to impose. Governor Gavin Newsom and San Francisco Mayor London Breed, both Democrats, were photographed having dinner at a luxury indoor restaurant last year, while Mayor Nancy Pelosi was seen cutting her hair, although many salons remained closed. across the state.
The reaction was quick up and down in California.
Small business owners protested home stay requests and a recall effort against Newsom quickly gained momentum. In Orange and Riverside counties, sheriff’s departments indicated that home-based supervision would not be prioritized after restrictions went into effect, while some restaurants in San Diego and Los Angeles have openly defied orders to stay home for weeks. .
Perhaps the biggest obstacle to reducing transmission rates, said Bibbins-Domingo, is convincing people that their actions can save lives.
“If we are unable to accept and understand how our destinies are linked, we will not go back to normal,” she said.