When Noah Syndergaard returns in the summer, the Mets project an initial rotation for Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, Syndergaard and new hired Taijuan Walker. This is undoubtedly the best rotation in the division and a rotation in the top 5 in baseball, which should be a reason for great excitement among Mets fans.
Not as exciting, but just as positive, is the depth of initial pitch that the Mets acquired with Walker and the new Mets Jordan Yamamoto and Joey Lucchesi, who can compete for a rotation spot at the beginning of the season or starts per spot at the end of the year. . In addition, there is the great success of last year, David Peterson, as well as those hired by free agents Jerad Eickhoff and Sam McWilliams, who show great promise as initial candidates. As it is currently built, Mets have nine or ten serious candidates to start pitching presentations, which is not something the team has had for a long time.
But until Syndergaard returns, there is still a vacancy left at the end of the rotation and many potential candidates to fill it. The way Mets addresses this problem depends on a number of factors, and although there is no clear solution, there are several good options.
Walker will likely launch the spin regardless of if and when Syndergaard returns. The Mets are paying him the starting money and he has proved to be an effective starter more recently than Lucchesi and Yamamoto with a 161 ERA + over 11 matches in 2020. He is not as accomplished or productive as deGrom, Stroman, Carrasco or Syndergaard, but he is clearly better than the team’s other back end options. Unless there is a significant drop in production, it deserves a place in rotation.
The Mets will likely pick Peterson first to fill the fifth slot in the rotation to start the season, not because he is necessarily the best option, but because he is the only remaining option that launched a full season in 2020. None of the Statcast numbers for Peterson bounces off the board, and his fast ball and curved ball rates of 10 lower percentiles are downright putrid, but his value as an innings eater and ground-ball inducer gives him great potential with an enhanced infield defense. Judging Peterson based on his production in a shortened season may be limited, especially since he had no previous MLB experience before 2020, but his skills play well on the limited strengths of the Mets defense.
Although Peterson may be the first option the team seeks to fill the fifth starting position, Lucchesi may be the best option. Lucchesi’s first two seasons in 2018 and 2019 showed steady improvement as his FIP dropped and his peripherals increased. Lucchesi also induced balls to the ground in a higher percentage in 2019 than Peterson in 2020, undermining Peterson’s best asset. What leaves Lucchesi back is the 2020 season marked by injuries, where he has shown little effectiveness in just three games played. Judging Lucchesi’s weak 2020 season may be as useless as judging Peterson’s great 2020 season, but if these injuries persist, it may be a cause for concern to start the season.
Yamamoto presents an interesting option as a starter. The third-year pitcher has some excellent Statcast measurements, including near-elite spin rates on his fastball and curved ball and wicked movement on his slider, but he has not been able to translate that talent into production. Yamamoto launched a perfectly good debut season with 96 ERA + in 2019, only to fall off a cliff with 25 ERA + in just four matches in 2020. The short season warning applies to Yamamoto too, but unlike Peterson or Lucchesi , he has yet to mount an above average season. If he beats the competition in spring training, he will have a chance to rotate, but considering his track record, he will probably need to exceed expectations to start the season in Queens.
Unlike Yamamoto, Eickhoff combined excellent peripherals with a full season of effective production, reaching 115 ERA + in a full 2016 season. Unfortunately, it has been a downhill slope for ex-Phillie, who suffered nerve damage in his throwing hand in 2018 and hasn’t had an above-average season since. After not throwing in 2020, Eickhoff is not much more than a secondary league recovery project, but with fast and curved ball rotation rates reaching the 80th percentile, it is worth working on.
After Eickoff is Sam McWilliams, who is a minor league player who recently spent time as a starter in the Rays system. The Mets seem to like him a little, since he was offered a contract for the major league in December, but without any major league experience, comparing him to the rest of the Mets options produces a big shrug emoji. Unless four other options do not prove to be viable initiators, it is far more likely that McWilliams first sees the action of the major league in the bullpen than in the rotation.
That kind of depth also opens up more creative options for Mets beginners. A six-player rotation could be favorable at the end of the season, probably only if the Mets accumulate a big divisional advantage, as it would provide more rest for the upper half of the rotation towards the playoffs and would provide valuable experience to the younger pitchers. Keeping a reliable innings eater like Peterson or Lucchesi in the bullpen as a long-term relief or emergency departure option can work well, especially since the bullpen doesn’t have many options for lefties other than the newly signed Aaron Loup. Yamamoto can also play well in short bursts with an unpleasant combination of fastball and slider, making it a solid bullpen option if there is no room for him in the rotation. It is important to note that while Mets has only applied creative bullpen solutions out of necessity in the past two years, manager Luis Rojas recently expressed openness to using an opener, something that can be considered bold for an organization reticent to advanced analysis.
Whether that happens is not yet known, but all of these are exciting options for a team that must compete for a title. Adding Walker to the initial rotation not only solidifies one of the top major spins this year, but also potentially gives the Mets one of the best spins of all time.