How concerned should we be with the new variant of the UK coronavirus?

A new variant of the coronavirus is sweeping England. At the same time, the country is reporting a record number of COVID-19 cases – almost 40,000 on Wednesday – as well as increases in hospitalizations and deaths. In London last week, about 2 percent of people in private homes tested positive for coronavirus, reported the Independent.

So the big question is, are these events connected? Is the new variant causing this increase?

British scientists are now beginning to answer that question. And the message to take home is worrying. The new variant, which contains 17 mutations, appears to be more transmissible and more difficult to control in terms of dissemination.

“Given all the biological and epidemiological evidence gathered in the past few weeks, I think the picture is becoming more and more consistent with something very serious,” said epidemiologist Nick Davies, who led the study.

Davies is part of a group of scientists in the United Kingdom, called SPI-M, whose job is to use mathematical models to predict how diseases will spread in order to guide policymakers’ decisions.

Last week, when health officials announced the emergence of this new variant, Davies doubted he was responsible for the increase in the UK: “Because a possible explanation for an increase in hospitalizations may just be that we just came out of the block in those regions. , and perhaps people have returned to more normal movements and contacts. “

In addition, all viruses mutate. This is normal. Most of the time, mutations are harmless. They do not make the virus more dangerous.

But then, a few days later, Davies watched a news presentation from South Africa and his skepticism evaporated. COVID-19 is also emerging there. At the same time, South African scientists have detected a new variant, which has striking similarities to that of the United Kingdom. Both versions contain a mutation called N501Y. This mutation appeared in previous variants and is already known to increase how tightly the virus binds to human cells.

And then Davies started to work. He entered the data for the new UK variant into computer models. He wanted to know why the new variant was spreading so quickly. He tested four main hypotheses. The new variant could:

1. Infect people who have had COVID-19?

2. Infect children more easily?

3. Spread faster than previous versions?

4. Be more transmissible? (That is, when people get the new variant, are they likely to spread it to more people than when they are infected with other versions?)

The mathematical models, published online on Wednesday but not yet peer-reviewed, point to one of these four hypotheses. “Increasing transmissibility is the easiest way to explain what we are seeing,” says Davies.

Specifically, the study suggests that the new variant is about 50% more transmissible than previous versions of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. But the data cannot yet rule out the possibility that other factors also contribute to the mastery of the new variant in England. There is also no evidence that the variant causes more serious illnesses than previous versions.

And scientists don’t know why this variant is probably more transmissible. Previous studies, with another variant, suggest that the UK variant can infect human cells more easily. And you can generate more copies of yourself within a person. “When you swab people infected with the coronavirus, people infected with this new variant tend to have more copies of the virus in the swab,” says Davies, who is also part of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

No matter what the underlying reason, policymakers should take this new variant very seriously, says epidemiologist Bill Hanage of the Harvard School of Public Health TH Chan. If it is in fact 50% more transmissible, it will be difficult to prevent it from spreading.

“Given the assumptions in their models, it is really very difficult to avoid a situation very similar to what happened last spring, in terms of the capacity of hospital beds and peaks, without a very high rate of vaccination,” said Hanage.

That said, Hanage says there is no reason for people to panic or be scared. “It’s not a magic virus,” he says – this is message virus expert Ian Mackay of the University of Queensland, also wrote on Twitter.

“In fact, we have found a large number of ways we can use it to stop it. However, we need to redouble our efforts in that direction.”

The variant is likely to come to the US – if it is not already here. The study strongly suggests that people should be even more diligent about preventive measures: avoid large meetings. use of masks, physical distance and hand washing. In addition, Hanage says, “the vaccine needs to be coming out at a very, very high rate.”

Because now, scientists believe that the vaccine will still be effective with this new variant. And Hanage says that the faster we immunize vulnerable members of a community, the safer the entire community will be from the original and future versions of the new coronavirus.

The number of people under the country’s highest level of restrictions – Level 4 – increased by 6 million on Saturday to 24 million people, about 43% of Britain’s population. No internal mixing of residences is permitted and only essential travel is permitted. Gyms, swimming pools, hairdressers and shops selling non-essential products have been closed.

In her annual Christmas address, Queen Elizabeth II, who spent much of the year in isolation at Windsor Castle with her husband, Prince Philip, delivered a sincere message of hope praising the “indomitable spirit” of those who rose “magnificently” to the challenges of the pandemic.

The queen’s speech was even more poignant, given the great sadness and turmoil that many families experienced in the United Kingdom, which has the second highest death toll in Europe, after Italy.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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