SALT LAKE CITY – About half of the Utahns can now have immunity against COVID-19, said a senior doctor in the region’s largest health care system on Friday, as state health officials reported 651 new cases of the virus and 17 additional deaths and a third vaccine is about to receive federal approval.
The number of residents who have been vaccinated or contracted the virus may reach 70% in June or July, Dr. Mark Briesacher, executive doctor at Intermountain Healthcare, told reporters during a virtual news conference.
Estimates suggest that it will take between 70% to 90% of a population to acquire the antibodies needed to fight COVID-19 before collective immunity is achieved. But the World Health Organization and other experts say the level varies with the disease and has not been established for the virus,
“This is a bit of a complicated issue, because it really is based on a combination of facts and assumptions. What are the facts? We know that 180,000 Utahns have had COVID-19 in the past 90 days. We know that 750,000 have been vaccinated, ”said Briesacher.
This represents about 30% of Utahns, “a great place to be,” he said. But supposing that there are also residents who contracted the virus, but never showed symptoms, so they were not diagnosed, “we are probably between 40% and 50% immune and I could see that this growth reaches 50% to 60% in April-May and for about 70% in June-July. “
The third vaccine may start arriving in Utah next week
A third vaccine, from Johnson & Johnson, is expected to be authorized for emergency use on Saturday after receiving approval from a federal advisory panel by the Food and Drug Administration on Friday. The two vaccines currently approved for use in the United States, Pfizer and Moderna, require a booster injection.
Governor Spencer Cox welcomed the news.
“Many have suffered from this pandemic,” said Cox in a statement. “A third authorized vaccine tells me that even in some of our darkest times, miracles still happen. This is a testament to modern research, science, public health and medicine. “
The governor said, “We are in a race to save as many lives as possible through vaccines. This vaccine will do that. Remember that all three vaccines are safe and effective. You can be sure that any of them will protect you and those around you from COVID-19. “
Cox, who told reporters at his weekly coronavirus briefing on Thursday that the federal government approved more than 20,000 doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine for the state, said Utahns should not hesitate to receive the new vaccine, although its rates effectiveness are lower. t as high as for Pfizer and Moderna.
“We have never advertised branded vaccines before,” said the governor, adding that the important thing is to prevent serious illnesses that require hospitalization and deaths from COVID-19, something that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine seems to be 100% effective at preventing.
The governor said Johnson & Johnson’s efficacy rate, around 66% when moderate cases are included, compared to over 90% for other vaccines, is still “incredibly good. These numbers are incredible and, by the way, have been tested against other variants, which may have reduced those numbers a bit. “
Briesacher also said that the Utahns should not worry about the chance of firing.
“When you are eligible, go to a place that works best for you and get the vaccine. Don’t worry about the manufacturer, because, after all, everyone is very effective ”against severe cases of the virus, he said.
Herd immunity is coming, but for now, ‘let’s hold on’
The doctor warned that reaching 70% immunity in the coming months would require the vaccines to remain effective – as well as the antibodies generated by having had COVID-19 – against new and more transmissible and possibly more lethal variants of the virus that continue to emerge.
“But overall, I think that’s why we, state leaders and many others in the healthcare field – certainly my colleagues in other healthcare systems – are optimistic about where we are today,” he said, adding that it doesn’t mean it is time to lighten up on public health orders that include wearing masks, social detachment and avoiding crowds.
“As our immunity increases, we will be reaching a point where we can and will relax these restrictions on public meetings. And I think that wearing a mask will become less important in the future. But I think today’s message is: let’s continue. “
Briesacher’s comments echo a new statewide health order in effect until March 25 that would suspend the mask’s mandate in counties designated as having low COVID-19 transmission rates, once the state received 1,633,000 first doses of vaccine from the federal government, enough for about 70% of adults in the state.
The governor said on Thursday that he now hopes that all Utah adults who want to be vaccinated will be able to do so by the end of April, a month earlier than he predicted. “There is an end in sight,” he said during his weekly update on COVID-19.
Thursday, Utahns 16 and older with specific medical conditions became eligible to receive the vaccines, a few days before the March 1 day initially set. They join health professionals, first responders, residents and staff from long-term care institutions, elementary and high school teachers and school staff and Utahns aged 65 and over on the eligibility list.
Information on how to schedule vaccines provided by Utah’s 13 local health departments, federally designed pharmacies and a state contractor is available at hornavirus.utah.gov. In Salt Lake County, the health department is eliminating people with comorbidities until Monday based on age.
Utah’s latest COVID-19 statistics
The Utah Department of Health said on Friday that another 22,092 doses of vaccine were administered in Utah for a total of 682,536, a number that is less than Briesacher’s estimate because there is a delay in notification to the state.
Utah had 370,084 positive cases, including the 651 reported on Friday. The seven-day continuous average for positive COVID-19 tests is 694 per day, and 5,498 Utahns have been tested and another 15,599 tests carried out since Thursday.
The state’s seven rotating days average for the positivity percentage is 5.6% if all tests are counted, Utah’s new preferred method, and 12.3% if multiple tests done by an individual in the past 90 days are excluded. Currently, 231 people are hospitalized with the virus in Utah.
The death toll in Utah is 1,907, with 17 deaths reported on Friday, including eight that occurred before February 5. Recently reported deaths are:
- A Washington County man, aged 65 to 84, residing in a long-term care institution
- A Utah county man, over 85, was not hospitalized
- A man from Salt Lake County, between 45 and 64 years old, residing in a long-term care institution
- A man from Salt Lake County, between 65 and 84 years old, residing in a long-term care institution
- A man from Salt Lake County, over 85, out of hospital
- An Iron County man, between 45 and 64 years old, not hospitalized
- A man from Salt Lake County, over 85, residing in a long-term care institution
- A Weber County man, over 85, not in hospital
- A man from Salt Lake County, aged 45 to 64, hospitalized at the time of death
- A man from Tooele County, between 45 and 64 years old, out of hospital
- Uintah County woman, over 85, resident in long-term care institution
- Salt Lake County woman, 65-84 years old, residing in a long-term care institution
- A woman from Salt Lake County, over 85, residing in a long-term care institution
- A woman from Salt Lake County, over 85, residing in a long-term care institution
- Salt Lake County woman, 65-84 years old, residing in a long-term care institution
- A woman from Weber County, over 85, out of hospital
- A woman from Utah County, between 45 and 64 years old, not hospitalized