U.S. President-elect Joe Biden comments on the Electoral College certification at the Queen Theater in Wilmington, Delaware on December 14, 2020.
Roberto Schmidt | AFP | Getty Images
GUANGZHOU, China – President-elect Joe Biden is unlikely to reverse President Donald Trump’s challenge to China’s industry and technology companies – but Biden is likely to be more focused in his approach and collaborate with allies, experts told CNBC.
During his presidency, Trump sought to challenge China’s technology industry through sanctions, executive orders and other actions. Biden will likely continue with this policy.
“The bullet came out of the chamber. Trump completely disrupted the status quo that has existed between the U.S. and China for decades,” Abishur Prakash, a geopolitics expert at the Center for Innovation of the Future (CIF), a Toronto-based consulting firm, told CNBC by email.
Collaboration with allies
The approach to cut China’s technology companies could continue under Biden’s presidency.
“I think the The administrator will still see technology as a major source of competition and will continue some of Trump’s approaches to cut the flow of critical technology to China, “said Adam Segal, director of Digital Policy and Cyberspace program at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR ).
“The difference is that the process will be more collaborative, with the private sector and allies, and more focused on a more restricted set of technologies,” he told CNBC by email.
A Biden team’s preference is likely to be to control less technology, but to put high walls around those that are considered necessary to protect for national security reasons.
Paul Triolo, head of Eurasia Group’s risky geotechnology practice consultancy, agreed that the Biden government will work with allies in its strategy regarding Chinese technology.
Triolo told CNBC that Biden’s team will “clarify what needs to be controlled in the areas of emerging and fundamental technologies”. Some of these areas will include artificial intelligence and so-called quantum computing, the next generation of computing that uses quantum physics to solve problems that take years for existing computers to be solved.
“Here, a Biden team’s preference is likely to be to control less technology, but to put high walls around those that are considered necessary to protect for national security reasons,” said Triolo by email. “In addition, I would expect the definition of which technologies are critical for control for national security reasons to be much clearer under the Biden government than during the Trump years.”
Prakash says Biden is likely to continue Trump’s effort to exclude Chinese suppliers from next-generation 5G mobile networks worldwide. The Trump administration has pressured allies to cut Huawei from its networks. Australia, Japan and the United Kingdom actually did this.
The geopolitical expert said Biden could also “recalibrate” in areas such as the blacklist of Chinese companies or certain export controls, while seeking to innovate in terms of his approach to other areas, such as merger and acquisition data rules.
One thing is certain – the technological battle between the US and China will continue under Biden’s presidency.
“The United States does not have many options. Either it allows China to dominate the world through technology or it challenges it,” said Prakash.