Viruses mutate; so does everything, really. But experts are now concerned about some of the thousands of variants of the coronavirus that have emerged around the world. We wrote about the UK variant last month; now there are more, including one in Los Angeles. You don’t have to panic. But it’s good to be informed.
One of the big reasons why we are seeing new variants now, a year after the pandemic, is that there are a lot more viruses out there than 12 months ago. The more viruses in the world, the more likely it is to mutate. And the more variants there are, the greater the chances that some of them are bad news.
If we (as a global community) had done a better job of containing the virus in the first place, we might not have reached the point where there are several variants that are different enough to concern the experts. But here we are.
Another thing to remember is that you will only find variants if you are looking for them. The UK variant, B.1.1.7, was discovered in part because the UK does many of the so-called surveillance tests – monitoring exactly what types of coronaviruses are available. The United States does that, too, but much less. Variant B.1.1.7 was probably already in other countries by the time it was discovered in the United Kingdom; they just hadn’t found it yet.
G / O Media can receive a commission
What are the variants to know?
B.1.1.7 was found in November 2020 in the United Kingdom, where it has probably been circulating since September or earlier. This New York Times article has more details about the strain and its mutations. It appears to be 50% more transmissible than a typical COVID virus. It has multiple mutations, including eight in the peak protein.
(The spike protein is the part of the virus that interacts with our cells. When we create antibodies to the spike protein, those antibodies can prevent the virus from infecting us. MRNA vaccines include the genetic code for the spike protein, which allows our cells to make the protein and then make antibodies against it.)
B.1.1.7 is more transmissible, but the disease it causes does not appear to be worse than normal.
B.1.351 was discovered in South Africa, in samples dating from October 2020, and also has mutations in the protein spike. It appears to be more transmissible than typical COVID, but it does not change the severity of the disease. Both this variant and the UK variant share a mutation called N501Y. A recent study, published as a prepress, found that the Pfizer vaccine does appear to protect against variants with this mutation.
P.1 is a variant of Brazil, first detected in December 2020. It also has mutations that appear to be of concern, including in the spike protein. One of its mutations, E484K, may be able to avoid antibodies; there is some reason to suspect that people who recovered from a previous COVID case can be infected by these mutations.
CAL.20C is a variant that is becoming popular in Los Angeles. We don’t know much about it yet.
For all these variants, science is still very new. The things we know about them are temporary. None of them seems to cause more serious illnesses; most are probably susceptible to existing vaccines; and PCR tests still seem to be able to detect them.
They have also often become the dominant strains in their locations, but for some of the variants, there is a small problem of chicken and egg in determining whether they are responsible for spikes in cases or not.
What happens now?
Two things. First, scientists are working to answer unanswered questions about these variants.
For example, we need to find out if they are really more transmissible and, if so, by how much. We need to know whether variants can escape our natural immunity (which would mean that you could catch the virus twice) and whether they can escape the immunity of several vaccines and vaccine candidates that already exist. We need to know if any of the variants cause more serious illness or if there are clinical differences. And we need to increase our vigilance, in all countries, to be able to find new variants as they arise and observe where existing variants are taking over.
Over time, if new variants are found to escape existing vaccines, vaccines may need to be updated. We do this for the flu shot every year; we may have to do the same with the COVID vaccine.
But the other action item is simpler, although it is still difficult: we need to do all the same things that we have been doing for prevention, only to a greater degree. If a variant is more transmissible, it is even more important to wear masks, stay at home and take testing seriously. It’s extra, extra It is important to get vaccines to people as soon as possible. In that sense, even if the virus changes, our most important measures to control it have not changed.