The great story of Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the rise of Buffalo Bills in the second half did not move the punters much.
Gamblers generally tend towards favorites and losers, and this is the case for both conference championship games. The Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers are getting the most bets, according to BetMGM data analyst John Ewing. Balances are also preferred by bettors.
After all, it is difficult to bet against Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.
Packers, Chiefs are popular bets
Here are the side and total stake percentages for each conference championship game via Ewing:
74% of Packers bets -3.5
65% of bets on Packers-Bucs over 51.5
60% of Chiefs bets -3.5
55% of bets on Chiefs-Bills over 54.5
The most interesting part of this could be the line movement in the NFC game.
Even though three quarters of the bets are arriving at the Packers, the line continues to move in the opposite direction. Buccaneers were +4, then dropped to +3.5 and were +3 in some books on Sunday morning. This type of reverse line movement is an indication that sharp and respected punters are in the Buccaneers with the tips.
The Packers have been a steamroller for the latter part of the season, especially in attack. But Brady and the Bucs were also very good. There is a good reason why sharps like Bucs are more than a field goal.
Gamblers expect many points
The common theme among the games is the quality quarterback game and efficient attacks.
Even though the snow forecast in Green Bay and temperatures are in their 20s, punters still expect an offensive show between Brady and Rodgers. This is reflected in the number of overbets.
The battle between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes is another fun one, with punters leaving despite a high total. Allen played very well, as the Bills have won nine of their last 10 games, including two playoff wins. Mahomes is coming out of a concussion and bothered with the toe turf, but he is still a great quarterback and the Kansas City attack can score in a hurry.
The NFL will have two major clashes to determine who plays in the Super Bowl LV. If the punters are right, we will see many points on Sunday.